Saturday, May 31, 2014

Ukraine SITREP May 31st, 21:13 UTC/Zulu: why can't the junta take Slaviansk?

Combats SITREP from "Juan"
  • Igla-S man protable anti aircraft missiles were found 'abandoned' beside a country road' by Donbas Army, confirmed. Quantity unknown. 
  • A video of a Ukrainian Sukhoi ground attack plane being shot down 30 May is extant. No verification of the incident by witness account from a crash sight. The pilot ejecting is visible on the video. 
  • Ternopol: Some government buildings have been taken by the people, one admin building burned 30 May.
  • Several ZU-23 anti aircraft systems (which can be used with devastating effects as heavy rapid-fire machine guns on ground targets) were "found" by Donbas Army. Source and number of as new condition weapons unknown. The weapon systems are now in use of the Donbas Army.
  • Casualties from the bombardments of Slavyansk and Donetsk are estimated in excess of 50 civilians but this number is not verified. It is verified that one 5 year old girl child has lost a foot. 
  • Children were being evacuated from Slavyansk to Russian Federation and sent to Sevastopol yesterday and today. That evacuation has been suspended due to the situation in Slavyansk as of early this afternoon local time.
  • Heavy fighting is continuing in parts of Slavyansk and outlying areas all day and intensifying as of 17:55 31.05.2014. 
  • Donetsk Airport is still the scene of sporadic fighting since afternoon 29 May. Fighting still occurring 31 May. 
  • Casualties of junta Army as of 28 May are reported to be 627. Casualties of the junta Army since that date are reported by the same source as 250. Both figures are KIA (killed in action). WIA (wounded in action) are not known accurately but the source estimates in excess of 700 WIA up to 28 May. WIA after there is no estimate.
  • Desertions from Ukrainian Army are confirmed at a minimum of 1428 as of 28 May. No numbers reported after that date. It is unknown if these figures include national guard/right sector casualties. 
  • 18:21 local time unconfirmed reports from Donetsk Airport that a junta Army unit has turned at least some of their weapons on national guard/right sector fighters in airport terminal, reason unknown. 
My own sources confirm that Slaviansk has seen the heaviest artillery strikes ever with shells landing more or less randomly in the city.  Still, the huge artillery barrage which "Juan" and, by the way,  one of the leaders of the Resistance, Viacheslav Ponomarev had feared would occur last night did not happen.  In other words, the means to flatten Slaviansk have been deployed, but the political decision seems to be the only thing waiting to happen and, as Crossvader on others had suggested, this decision would entail major risks for the regime in Kiev.  My personal guess is that the local commanders of the Ukie death-squands around Slaviansk would love to open up with everything they have against those they call "terrorists", "bugs" or "Moskals" but that folks like Poroshenko in Kiev see, if not the big picture, then at least a bigger picture.  For one thing, the Russians could simply walk out from the negotiations on gas deliveries.  What is certain is that the fight for the control of rump-Ukraine is now on, with on one hand the Poroshenko-Klichko duo trying to get Kiev under control and on the other the Iarosh-Timoshenko-Tiagnibok-Liashko freak show trying to put pressure on him with maximalist demands.  The compromise in Novorossia seems to be "we will shell enough to create a panic, but not enough to trigger a real bloodbath".  This is most definitely not an effective tactics.

Combat operations in many parts of the world have all shown that while the initial shock takes a very heavy toll on the civilian population, after a while people learn how to adapt and survive.  There are already reports about children recognizing the the weapons used to shell them by their sound.  Schools are now closed, and most families spend their time in or near shelters.  As for the fighting men of the Novorosiia Defense Forces (NDF) they will not be eliminated or forced to retreat by artillery strikes.  Again, an analysis of recent urban combat operation shows that artillery and air strikes are not enough to prevail against a trained military force dug-in inside a city.  The only known way to defeat a force dug-in inside a city is to engage in building-to-building infantry warfare, something very similar to WWII.  As soon as you put your own force inside a city it becomes very tricky to use artillery fire support (because you risk hitting your own men) and air strikes, especially with powerful bombs or missiles, become especially dangerous.  The only way to clear a city from its defenders becomes to send in heavily armed (infantry) assault teams, supporter by armor, to clear the city street by street and house by house, probably the most difficult mission one can give to an infantry force and one in which the better trained and most experienced side will have a huge advantage over your typical "street rioter turned national guardsman in 2 weeks" kind of attacker. 

Right now the junta is using an old Bolshevik technique: they send conscript units into combat and right behind them they use "blocking squads" - special Right Sector death squads which will summarily execute anybody not willing fight.  While such methods are more or less doable in open terrain they are absolutely impossible to use in an urban environment.  Thus, those Ukrainian army forces which might be able to competently execute an urban assault (paratroopers) are rarely willing to do so, while those who would be most willing to do so would either be killed in minutes ("street rioter turned national guardsman in 2 weeks") or to cowardly to try (death squads).

What we have witnessed so far is typical of the inability of the junta to lead a competent military operation.  All they have done so far is:

1) First terror tactic: the random shelling of Slaviansk and other cities.
2) Second terror tactic: random shooting at civilians.
3) Attacking checkpoints located outside the cities.
4) Attacking symbolic objectives located outside the cities like the Donetsk Airport.

As I have said it many times, time is not on the side of the junta.  Civilians are gradually being evacuated from the combat zone and even if the Ukrainian authorities use various intimidation and nasty harassment techniques against these refugees (like forcing them to get out of their buses and continue on foot), they cannot simply kill them all (too many cellphones with cameras, too many reporters out there).  As for the NDF, they are clearly getting more and more weapons such as the MANPADS (man portable air defense systems) and rapid fire AA (anti-air) guns mentioned by "Juan" which the NDF seems to regularly "find" here and there.  By the way, MANPADS and AA guns are the *perfect* weapons for urban warfare.  The first ones prevent not only air strikes but also air mobility (ferrying around of men and equipment) as we have seen with the recent death of the junta thug-general in charge of the "National Guard" in the Donbass.  As for rapid-fire AA guns they can not only shoot helicopters and aircraft, they can turn any wall or lightly armored vehicle into confetti in just a few seconds.  Even a main battle tank will be badly rattled if a ZU-23 puts well-laid burst of steel armor-piercing rounds on it.  My understanding is that so far the NDF only has the towed version, but sooner or later they are going to get the self-propelled one (the ZU-23-4 lovingly called "Shilka") which is normally used as air-defense system for in any motor-rifle or armored regiment.  As for the old ZU-23-2 they can be mounted on pickups and trucks (though these vehicles will shake badly during firing).  I think of these simple but formidable weapons has "WWII weapons on steroids".

Everything I wrote above about Slaviansk is even more applicable to big cities like Donetsk which feature two additional and formidable obstacles to overcome for the attacking forces: big strong buildings build with reinforced concrete with deep basements and a buried and redundant communications network.  The former make it even harder to use artillery or airstrikes to support attacking infantry units while the latter make it all but impossible to disrupt the defenders communications.  Big cities also have more food stores, more supply and ammo dumps, they can be better prepared for defense (axes of attack are easier to predict in a city) and the defending force can be *more* mobile inside a big city than in the open.  Finally, cities have even more civilians with video cameras and cellphones and they also have more journalists and reporters.  The political costs of attacking a big city are thus much higher than the ones of a almost "private massacre" in a small village which, at any rate, might be discovered only days later.  Some of the worst massacres in Rwanda did not take place in Kigali (which saw plenty of horrors) but in small villages hidden in the hills and forests.

Bottom line: this is one the junta leaders cannot win.  They hope to bait Russia in, but if Russia resists the provocation, and I believe Russia will, they will have to give up and, as I said yesterday, I think that the junta will do so sooner rather than later.

The Saker

Two very good articles, one in Russian and one in French

Dear friends,

While I work on the next SITREP I wanted to share with you two very good articles, one in Russian and one in French.

The first article, sent to me by 'D' and entitled "Почему нет военной интервенции РФ на Украину" (Why there is no intervention of the Russian Federation in the Ukraine) provides a detailed and extremely well-written explanation of why Russia is not intervening in the Ukraine.  Until somebody translates it, which I really hope happens, you might be able to use Google or Yandex translators to get a general idea of the points made by the author.  I consider this analysis as a "must read", especially for those who are angry and frustrated by Russia's *apparent* passivity.

If somebody had the time and energy to translate this article into English I would be immensely grateful!

The second article sent to me by 'L' is, believe it or not, a discussion of my alleged "anti-Semitism" (sigh, rolleyes) by what is certainly one of the best French language websites on issues of international security,  Normally, I absolutely *hate* wasting my time trying to prove a negative to the inevitable garden variety "enforcer of political correctness" which pops-up on a regular basis to accuses me of being anti-Jewish just because I use the expression "AngloZionist Empire".  Frankly, replying to such accusations truly depresses me not because I care about what idiot thinks, but because such stupidity makes me lose hope in mankind (if they are really so stupid, what is the point?!).  The great joy for me is that the folks at Dedefensa actually did come to their own correct conclusions about my worldview in an article entitled A Propos de Saker and they did so simply by paying attention to what I actually wrote.  I am very grateful to Dedefensa for setting the record straight and reminding me how many good and smart people are still out there fighting the good fight!  It also proves to me that those who pretend to have "sincere doubts" about my views about racism are simply intellectually dishonest, they don't care at all about the truth and they are just looking for a pretext to slander and bully me into surrendering to their ideology.

That's it for now.  I hope to have the next SITREP ready in a few hours.

Kind regards,

The Saker

Short message from "Juan"

"Another long night. As of this time, 06:14 local time, the Grad system has not fired. Bombardment of civilian areas stopped at 03:00 31.05.14 and resumed at 06:00 this morning."

Friday, May 30, 2014

May 30th combat SITREP update by "Juan"

Seemyovka, Slavyansk, Kromatorsk and Donetsk City are under heavy artillery bombardment and aircraft  bombing attacks for 2 hours and continuing. Civilian areas targeted. Civilian casualties are mounting, Donbas Army casualties unknown. 

Data provided 25 Brigade located on Karachun Mountain overlooking Slavyansk has been order to fire Grad systems early morning 31 May 2014 in full salvo. 3 launchers in place. Commander refused the order and was removed.

Systems have been zeroed in and are ready to fire. Intent is 'flatten Slavyansk'.

Source is reliable but not 100% verified.

May 30th combat SITREP by "Juan"

1. Sporadic and heavy at times fighting around Slavyansk and the outlying villages on 29 May with no notable successes for the Nats Army and national guard units. Some losses reported for the national guard units.

2. A half battery of Grad missile launchers, BM-21, is in position within range of Mariupol. As of this morning that unit has not fired. Range of Grad missile is up to 35 kilometers.

3. A half battery of Grad missile launchers is in position within range of Slavyansk.

4. I have no positive verification of a Grad missile attack on Slavyansk. This does not mean an attack did not occur. Something very large and multiple did hit the outskirts of an outlying village but I have no source at the impact spots to verify what the impacts were.

5. Sources report that the Donbas Army action at Donetsk Airport was a trap involving proposed negotiations with certain Ukraine Army units under the auspices of a western organization in Donetsk at that time. Sources report that shortly after the negotiations started the Ukraine Army sent in by air strong reinforcements to their unit in airport as the Ukraine Army units in airport attacked the Donbas Army unit.

6. The transport of the Donbas Army wounded in convoy out of the airport area late Monday evening was arranged as a truce to succor the wounded. The two Kamaz transport trucks were each flying a red cross flag and a white flag of truce. They drove in to an ambush set up by right sector/national guard units. The drivers of both trucks were killed. One truck overturned after striking a curb. The other truck was hit by an RPG round. The surviving wounded were killed by right sector on the spot. As the wounded were being killed the two flags were removed from each truck by right sector operatives.

7. Partisan activity has started 3 days ago in Kharkov Oblast around Kharkov City among other areas targeting national guard/right sector units. 29 May losses to two national guard/right sector units were heavy in ambushes.

8. Vostok Battalion 29 May started an operation around Donetsk Administration Building of the Donbas Republic to stop looting by certain Donbas Army members after strong complaints from citizens. Metro supermarket near the airport was heavily looted by Donbas Army members as were several other shops and stores and much of the loot was stored in 3 tents in the area of Donbas Administration Building, one tent having the contents and perpetrators shown on video. Reports are 7 looters were arrested and are awaiting trial. Reports from Ukraine and west media that the looters were shot are false.

9. After the anti looting operation was completed Vostok Battalion had the square in front of Donbas Administration Building cleared of the barricades to provide access for citizens to the facility and to facilitate easier defense of the area in the event of a Ukraine attack.

10. Civilian casualties in Donbas are mounting with the random artillery attacks by units of the Ukraine Army and national guard/right sector. 29 May saw 8 civilians killed in Donbas and a like number of wounded. Some of these casualties were caused by air burst antipersonnel rounds fired from howitzers of the Ukraine Army. Targets are living areas with flats buildings with no visible Donbas Army units in the areas.

12. Families of mobilized Ukraine Army reservists held a large demonstration in Kiev at the Ukraine Parliament Building demanding the return of their husbands and sons. By Ukraine law reservists can not be mobilized for more than 45 days without a declaration of war against another sovereign state by Ukraine. This declaration of war has not been made. Kiev has ordered the mobilization extended indefinitely.

13. One of the two Ukrainian helicopters shot down on 29 May was carrying the commanding general of the 'national guard' who was also 'the commander of field operations for national guard units'.

14. Ukraine has rejected the offer of humanitarian aid from Russian Federation for the two Oblasti of Donetsk and Lugansk.

15. An attempt on 29 May to evacuate children from certain areas of Slavyansk was unsuccessful. Ukraine Army units blockading the city refused passage to the buses carrying the children.

16. A refugee processing center has been set up in the Federal City of Sevastopol of the Russian Federation to aid in the settlement of refugees arriving from areas of fighting in Ukraine. Several hundred refugees have arrived in Sevastopol as of 17:00 29 May and are being housed and fed in the city. A like number are being succored in Simferopol, the capitol of the Autonomous Republic of Krimea of the Russian Federation. A processing center is schedule to be set up 30 May in Simferopol to help the refugees. More refugees are expected in both cities. A like facility for refugees will be set up in the eastern Krimea city of Kerch if needed.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

A pleasant interlude: Russia's Diamonds by Yuri Dia konov

I have recently had the pleasure of reading the latest book by Yuri Dia konov entitled Russia's Diamonds and I can immediately tell you that it is a fun read.  The weird thing is that the Amazon blurb about this books says this about the book:
Some agents are bigger than life. Kllip Lugre works for Russia. You might say that Lugre is the antithesis of James Bond. But not because he's the quintessential bad guy from the east. Lugre is Russian.  And in his eyes the west is the enemy. So, different strokes for different folks! It all depends who's propaganda you've been slurping since the last time you've wet your diapers. Get ready for an adventure that will introduce a different slice of reality.
When I read the book I had the exactly opposite thought:  the hero, Kliip Lugre (what a weird name!) is exactly a Russian version of the British 007: they both like sexy women, big cars, amazing stunts and fancy wealthy settings.  They both have a special status (077 a license to kill; Lugre reports directly to Putin) and they both like gadgets and guns.  This comparison of mine should immediately tell you that Russian's Diamonds is not a realistic spy novel at all, but a very entertaining but light read.

The book's plot centers around a sudden discovery of diamonds in Russia (I won't tell you how to avoid spoilers) and the struggle by Western powers to prevent Russia from creating a diamond backed "hard" Ruble.   Setting aside the diamond aspect of the book, the author - who clearly knows a lot about economics - presents a concentrated version of what is in reality already going on today even if the real-world struggle is not about a big chache of diamonds, but about all the wealth still available in Siberia.  From that point of view the book is rather very realistic and offers a very interesting discussion of fiat money versus real "hard" money.

What also makes this book unique is that the author is clearly in love with Russian weapons and technologies and reading this book will teach you a lot about Russian high-teach and fancy weapons.  The other unique feature of this books is that Putin (or "VVP") is actually a character in the book.  You even have him flying over Siberia in the supersonic Tu-160 strategic bomber.  If you like weapons and gadgets this book is a "must have" as it is the only book, at least as far as I know, who lovingly dwells on the many fancy special weapons Russians have in their arsenal.

You get the idea: great fun in a easy to read and well written book.  I personally did not like the character of the main female protagonist of the book and I could have done without the really not needed sex episodes, but these are minor gripes.  All in all the book is fun to read.

I definitely recommend this book to any fans of the British James Bond or to those who favor fun over realism.  The book is available for download in electronic format from Amazon's Kindle store for $9.99 here:

The Saker

Russia gives 240 million Euros to Syria

The news agency Regnum has announced that Russia will give Syria 240 million Euros to help it pay for its social programs.  46 millions will be donated and the rest of the sum loaned.  This agreement was negotiated by Dmitri Rogozin during his recent trip to Syria.  The agreement will not require any additional spending for the Russian budget as both side have agreed to a "debt in exchange for financial assistance" deal settling the issue of the payments Syria owed Russia before the war began and which it could not pay.

The Saker

Ukraine SITREP May 29th, 16:06 UTC/Zulu: Poroshenko's weird war

Introduction: the broader background to the Ukrainian crisis

Before looking at the latest developments in the Ukraine, I think that it is important to at least mention two major developments involving Russia.  First, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus have signed the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and they will soon be joined by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.  Second, China has officially called for a new security alliance with Russia and Iran thereby proving that all the naysayers who said that China did not really mean it to form an alliance with Russia were plain wrong.  As I mentioned it in a previous SITREP the scope and nature of the recent economic agreements between Russia and China already constituted what I called a crypto-alliance and now we see the first official move by China to drop the 'crypto' part of it.  Again, this is truly a major tectonic shift in world politics and, arguable, the creation of the most powerful coalition of countries in history.  The title of Godfather of this new coalition should really go to the USA and Barak Obama who by his amazingly arrogant and hostile policies towards both China and Russia has greatly contributed to the forging of this alliance.

This process is far from over, by the way.  Not only are there discussions to expand the BRICS to other countries (like Argentina), the SCO or CSTO could also be expanded to include countries such as Iran or Pakistan.  AS for the Eurasian Economic Union, it will eventually morph into a single political entity, a Eurasian alliance which could include China in economic and/or security agreements.
Lukashenko, Nazarbaev and Putin sign the EEU
The entire Eurasian landmass is slowly but inexorably becoming integrated into a zone free from AngloZionist control and free of the dollar.  The writing is on the wall for the AngloZionist Empire.

Latest developments in the Ukraine

The Ukrainian offensive has seen yet another dramatic escalation with, for the first time, the use of "Grad" multiple rocket launchers on the city of Slaviansk.  At least one Ukrainian helicopter, reportedly carrying a general and 12 other people, has been shot down by the Novorossia Defense Forces (NDF).  Sporadic artillery fire, at times intensive, has been heard through the night and casualties continue to be brought into the local hospitals.  Several Ukrainian units have put down their weapons and basically surrendered to the NDF.  In Sebastopol special headquarters have been set up to deal with the flow of incoming refugees.  In Kiev the Parliament is considering declaring martial law which would basically give unlimited power to the junta and suspend most civil rights.

There are two ways to look at these events.  You could say that a lot happened, there is an escalation taking place, people on both sides die, helicopters got shot down, units are refusing to obey criminal order, etc.  But you could also say that from a purely military point of view absolutely nothing happened at all.  Think of it this way:

What have we seen since the junta began its terror operation in Novorossiia?  Slaviansk and Kramatorsk have been besieged and shelled.  The junta forces have seized the airports near Slaviansk/Kramatorsk and Donetsk.  That's it.

Now let me immediately dispel the notion that these airports are somehow strategically important.  They are not.  Normally, in most military conflicts, airports are very important objects, especially their runways and radars.  But in this case the seizure of the Slaviansk/Kramatorsk and Donetsk airports has not been followed by any use of them by the junta, if only because there is way too much combat still taking place around them to make their use safe.  Besides, what need is there for airports when everything can be reached by road anyway? What about denying the use of this airport to either the NDF or the Russians should they decide to intervene?  Well, the NDF has no air assets at all, as for the Russians they sure don't need an airport to land an Airborne Regiment, Brigade or even Division.   So why did the junta decide to commit its best forces to seize these airports?  Simple - because they are not cities.  Or, put differently, because they are located outsides cities.  The fact is that the junta simply does not have the forces needed to occupy and control any city, so this is why they go for objectives which are outside cities.

Petr Poroshenko has announced that what the junta calls the "anti-terrorist operation" should not last for weeks, but only hours.  So this begs the question: if the entire mix of junta forces (military + death-squads) have not succeeded in taking either Slaviansk (hab: 130'000)or Kramatorsk (hab: 165'000), what are their chances to take Donetsk (hab: 1'000'000)?  Zero, of course.  And even less than zero if that is to be done in a matter of a few days and hours.

So what is the point of all this?

Is it that the political leaders and the junta are simply stupid or completely miss-informed?

No, it's not that simple.  For one thing, to speak of a "junta's strategy" or "Poroshenko's strategy" is plain wrong as this accepts they myth that that is an independent government in the Ukraine.  There is none.  Truly, all the decisions are taken by Uncle Sam and his representatives in Kiev and the so-called authorities are just the USA's collaborators who simply take orders form their boss.  And for all their sins, the folks in DC are neither stupid not poorly informed.  So what is their strategy in this frankly weird civil war?

Ideally, the first objective of the AngloZionists would be to trigger a Russian military intervention in protection of Novorossiia.  That would re-create the kind of Cold War tensions these folks are so nostalgic for.  It would give a justification for the existence of NATO and, if played well, it could even result in NATO and Russian forces looking at each other across the Dniepr river.  Not only would such a situation be a dream come true for the US military-industrial complex, it would make it possible for the USA to achieve one of its most important strategic objective: to keep Europe colonized and to prevent any chance of its integration with the East.  Far from being stupid, this strategy is nothing short of brilliant as it gives Putin only two choices: if Russia does not intervene Putin will look weak, indecisive, or even like a traitor to the Russian people, but if Russia does intervene, then Putin will be called the "New Hitler" or "New Stalin", a crazed Russian nationalist hell-bent on re-building the Soviet Union and crushing the freedom-loving Europeans under his tanks.  Are these cliches?  Yes, of course, but they will be used.  So for Putin its "damned if you do, and damned if you don't".

Second option: to wear down the NDF to the point where they will eventually surrender.  Not very likely, but in theory possible.  Should that happen, this could be presented as a double victory for Poroshenko: he crushed the "terrorists" and he "deterred the Russian Bear".  Again, this is a lot of whishful thinking, but in theory the US might see that as a unlikely but possible outcome.

Option three: the old US strategy of "what I cannot have, I burn down".  Basically, the strategy here is to destroy and damage as much of Novorossiia as possible, making a recovery as long and costly as possible.  This is also a lesson to all those who dare defy the Empire: you disobey and we will make you pay.

Russian options:

As I mentioned above, Russia really has very few options to chose from.  Any direct Russian intervention in the Ukraine - which in military terms would be a no-brainer - would have huge political consequences for the future of Europe's stability.  In essence, by not intervening Russia is denying the USA the Cold War v2 it wants so badly.  Should Russia intervene, and that is very possible, it would mean that the Kremlin accepts that the real price of its intervention is a long term re-submission of all of Europe to US interests.

Russia does, of course, have the option of covertly assisting the NDF and there is no doubt in my mind that it is already doing it, but this can only be done in a very careful and remote manner in order to avoid giving the US any proof of covert support.  Still, advanced anti-air and anti-tank weapons are clearly shown on some videos which shows that somebody is helping the resistance.

Russia has also begun leaking information about the Ukrainian units involved in terror operations against the people of the Donbass.  For example, Russian TV has announced yesterday that the following units have been involved in the bombing of the Donetsk airport: the 299 Tactical Aviation Brigade from Nikolaev (Su-25) and the 40th Aviation Brigade from Vasilkovo (MiG-29) who use the Ivan Kozhedub Air Force University of Kharkov (Mi-24; Mi-8) as a combat operations basis.  Russian bloggers have also leaked the photos and names of the pilots involved.

Russian jurists have created special legal companies who take the testimony of the Ukrainians whose civil or human right have been violated by the junta to file lawsuits in Ukrainian courts.  Of course, the Ukrainian courts are fully expected to reject the complaint at which point the Russian can then file their lawsuits at the European Court of Human Rights.

The good news for Russia is that there is no way that the Junta can take Donetsk or Lugansk.  And even if junta forces did enter these cities they would not be able to control them.  The Russian military strategists understand that very well.  After all, the Russians have more urban combat experience than any army in the world: during WWII the Soviet forces liberated 1200 cities form the German Army and that experience has been studied over and over again in the Russian military academies. Furthermore, while currently only a minority of the man of combat age in the Donbass have joined the NDF, the constant shelling and terror of the junta's assault is motivating more and more of them to join the resistance.

Time is on the side of Novorossiia and of Russia.

My own feeling is that Poroshenko will soon fold and announce some kind of "peace initiative" which would probably not involve a complete withdrawal of junta forces from Novorossiia as demanded by  the local authorities, but it will include a "suspension" of combat operations.  Poroshenko - who is most definitely not a dumb man - knows that he absolutely must sit down and begin negotiating with the Russian and he also knows that the Russians simply cannot negotiate with him as long as active combat operations continue.  I cannot prove that, but I believe that Poroshenko himself already understands all this and that what is happening now is that he is trying to convince the US of the need to accept the facts on the ground.  Right now, Poroshenko can hide behind the tiny figleaf excuse that he has not been formally inaugurated, but that pretext will vanish pretty soon (on June 7th) and I suspect that as soon following his inauguration he will announce some kind of peace initiative.

Until then, the Russians will have to wait and grind their teeth at the news of every atrocity committed by the junta's neo-Nazi death-squads.  Payback time will come, but the first priority will have to be to deny the AngloZionists the Cold War they are so desperately trying to trigger..

The Saker

PS: as a small footnote: to those of you who can read Russian and who have an Android device (smartphone or tablet) there is a new and very interesting application called Вежливые Люди available from the Google Play (aka Android Store) called .  There are two versions of it, the one supported by ads:

and the one costing $1.12 which is ad-free: (which I urge you to chose over the other one).

Вежливые Люди provides updated information from 18 different news sources mostly focused on the events in the Eastern Ukraine.  You can browse through them and get a title and a paragraph or so and then, if you click on it, it takes you to the full article.  See the screenshot to the right.

This app is only in its version 1.0 but it is already very useful and well designed and I find it one of the best sources of information about what is happening in the Ukraine.  I highly recommend it to you, especially the articles from the "Голос Севастополя" which is based in the Crimea provides up to date information from the resistance in the Donbass.

For English speakers my first choice would be RT News English and its excellent Android application:

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Interesting interview of Alexander Borodai, the Prime Minister of the Donetsk People's Republic

Tonight the Russian TV showed a rather interesting live interview of Alexander Borodai, the Prime Minister of the self-declared "Donetsk People's Republic". 

Alexander Borodai interviewed while protected by his anti-sniper team
Here is a summary of his statements:
  • There are no combats inside Donetsk proper.
  • The DPR forces fully control all of the city.
  • The Right Sector fully controls the airport.
  • The junta's air force make regular overflights of the city of Donetsk but they are not bombing or conducting air strikes.
  • The Ukrainian military tries to avoid combat with the forces of the DPR, but they are forced to do so by the Right Sector death squads who threaten them and their families.
  • The DPR forces are also trying to avoid engaging the Ukrainian military.
  • There are no negotiations between the DPR and Kiev, only regular exchanges of prisoners.
  • Kiev regularly sends negotiators to try to make a deal, but the DPR officials demand a full withdrawal of all Ukrainian forces from the DPR before any negotiations can take place.
  • Donetsk is fully surrounded.  Banks to not function any more.  All roads are closed, and only a few vehicles can enter or leave the city.
  • Many mines are on strike and miners are organizing a protest meeting.

Ukrainian nationalism: an image is worth a thousand words

Normally, when somebody is presented a sword or another weapon, it is the person accepting the gift which is supposed to stand on his knees to receive it, not the person giving it.  But in Banderastan, things are always the opposite of what they should be.

Check out the photo below.  It shows a Ukie general standing on his knees to offer a sword to John F. Tefft, US Ambassador to the Ukraine (now retired):

From the servant to the master
Amazing, no?

Even more telling is that this picture was taken in November of 2013, right before the current crisis began.  As for Ukie sources, they say that this photo shows the moment when Tefft, whose name is often mentioned as the next US Ambassador in Russia, is being received into the Ukrainian Cossacks as a "kind Baptist and US Ambassador".

What can I say? "Glory to the Ukraine, to the heroes glory!"?

The Saker

Speech of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah commemorating the Day of Resistance and Liberation held in the Southern village of Bint Jbeil on May 25th, 2014

Foreword by the Saker: those of you who are new to this blog might not know it, but in the past I have always posted the translated speeches of the Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah for two reasons: first, I have an infinite respect and admiration for the man himself and for his movement, but also because I believe that being exposed to his views is absolutely mandatory for anybody who wants to understand the Middle-East.  I would also note that unlike almost every political leader in the Middle-East or even the world, Hassan Nasrallah is known for speaking the truth, for not lying, not posturing.  Even in Israel they know that if he says something you can take it to the bank.  At most, Nasrallah might not address a topic, but he never lies, at least to my knowledge.

But today, in the context of the war in the Donbass/Novorossiia I find his speech exceptionally valuable because Hezbollah is without any doubt the most sophisticated resistance movement on the planet, light-years ahead of whomever we could think of as #2.  The village where he made the speech I am posting below is literally right across the Israeli border and yet in 33 days of absolutely massive attacks involving the absolutely best units and even formations the Israelis had, they could not take Bint Jbeil.  Ever since this village has been nicknamed "Nasrallahgrad".

The new, "junior", resistance in Kramatorsk, Slaviansk, Krasnyi Liman, Odessa, Donetsk, Lugansk and the rest of Novorosiia needs to learn for the most experienced and capable resistance movement on the planet: Slaviansk or Kramatorsk can and must be turned into BinJbeil.

My hope is that all of us who support the resistance to the AngloZionist Empire worldwide learn from Hezbollah, from its exemplary tolerance and respect for other religions and ethnic groups, to its unique respect for human rights (merciful policy towards the SLA) to its outstanding combat capabilities. 

At a time when both Zionism and Wahabism are working hand in hand to take over the entire Middle-East, Hezbollah not only protects the people of Lebanon, it even plays a crucial role in the war against Syria.

Truly Hezbollah has a lot for offer to those willing to learn it.
The Saker
I take refuge in Allah from the stoned devil. In the Name of Allah, The Compassionate, The Most Merciful. Peace be on the Seal of prophets, our Master and Prophet, Abi Al Qassem Mohammad and on his chaste and pure Household and on his chosen companions and on all messengers and prophets.

Peace be upon you and Allah's mercy and blessings.

We felicitate you on this great national day, and we thank you for this massive turnout. We welcome you on this blessed land – the land of resistance, liberation, and victory.

Before ushering in my speech, I would like to highlight that this great jihadi occasion coincides with other great religious anniversaries in the Hijra calendar which are marked by Muslims such as the anniversary of the Prophet's "Night Journey and Ascension to the Seven Heavens". Moreover, on this very day – Rajab 25th – was the martyrdom of the oppressed Imam Mussa bin Jaafar Al Kathem (peace be upon them) in the prisons of Baghdad. On all of these occasions, we have to offer our felicitations and consolations to the Prophet of Allah (Peace be upon him and his Household) as well as to all Muslims who believe in his "Night Journey" and unanimously agree on having sincere affection to his relatives and Household (Peace be upon them).

Brothers and sisters! In the time available to me, I will tackle some topics. Indeed, I don't have enough time to tackle all the causes which I am expected to tackle on such a day. On one hand, there is not enough time, and the nature of the occasion does not tolerate. On the other hand, there are topics which are quite important and critical, but intentionally I will not tackle today. That does not mean that I am ignoring them but rather in that I am observing several interests.

Going back to the occasion of May 25th, 2000, as in every year, we meet here to assert year after year and generation after generation on the following concepts as we need to do so:

First, we assert the deep and historical meanings and dimensions of this victory. We as well as the dear brethrens have talked elaborately about that. Many studies and researches were written about it too. Among these connotations was the collapse of the project of "Major Israel", and the repercussions of this victory are still valid on both sides of the front: here in Lebanon, in Palestine, and in our nation as well as on our enemy. Was it not for this victory, the victories and achievements which followed would not have taken place. We can truly say that the victory of May 25th, 2000 founded for the era of victories that followed – it is the time in which defeats came to an end and will be gone forever.

Second: We assert that this victory and this achievement is a Lebanese-Arab-national-Islamic achievement which cannot be attributed to a single party, faction, region, or even country, as it belongs to the entire nation, which is engaged in a war with the Zionist scheme and the US hegemony scheme on our sanctuaries, region, and capabilities. We have always strived to give this day this broad dimension so that it would be a day celebrated by the homeland and the entire nation.

Third: We hail and laud the great sacrifices that were offered by our people in souls, children, money, wealth, and security. We also hail the sacrifices offered by the resistance movements with all their factions, the national army, the security forces, the Syrian Arab Army on the Lebanese territory, and the Palestinian factions. We stress that this achievement was the product of these major sacrifices and that it was not granted for free.

Fourth: Through commemorating this occasion annually, we want to promote the culture of hope in the future and confidence in victory and the capability to confront the most oppressive occupation armies and the toughest challenges. This culture of having confidence in Allah and trusting our people and our human being – men, women, elderly, youth, and families – is what admitted us to the era we call "the era of victories" that started in 2000 and continued in the defeat of "Israel" in Gaza and its withdrawal from Gaza in September 2005, to the defeat of "Israel" in July War 2006, to the steadfastness of Gaza in 2008-2009 (the 22 days war), to the eight-day-confrontation in 2012, to the "Breaking the Silence Operation" in Gaza several months ago and before that the defeat of the troops of the most powerful world armies – the defeat of the US Army which was occupying Iraq in December 2011.

This is the era of victories. It is the outcome of this culture and this conviction.

So the most important conclusion we always draw since May 25th, 2000 and we are asserting today is that we may gain victory and we have gained victory in more than one battle and no matter how tyrannical, capable the enemy is – even if it owns the most powerful weapons and the most powerful army – it might be defeated before our will, and it had been defeated in more than one battle.

Thus, it is most important to have this faith, confidence, trust in Allah, determination, and will, and to carry on working because faith alone is not enough.

In this occasion, it is obligatory to pose before the moral and civilizational content of this resistance and its victory in 2000 taking into consideration the events taking place in our region.

Unfortunately, efforts are made today to consolidate a specific idea, impression, or scene that tries to link between Islam (the Islamic movements, the Islamic group, and the Islamic framework) and arbitrary killing, slaughtering, demolition, blazing, massacres, genocides, ruining places of worship, beheading people, disentombing graves, stabbing in chests, and issuing death penalties against others merely for disagreeing with them on the political stance and not for religious or doctrinal reasons. This link is a crime against Islam and a treason practiced by those who perpetrate it.
There is not enough time, and I too don't want to usher into a scientific, intellectual, or jurisprudential debate over this issue though it is worth such a discussion. On May 25th, I only want to say that we are before a different sample and a different experience. It is the victory of the resistance in South Lebanon. In 2000, in like these days, thousands of full-fledged fighters entered the broad occupied border line and its towns and villages. There were the residents from our Lebanese people who belong to the various and diversified religions, sects, and factions and some of them were involved with the enemy in what was befalling the South, West Bekaa, and Lebanon all along the long years of occupation.

Everyone still remembers that souls, dignities, wealth, people, churches, mosques, places of worship, trees, plants, edifices, humans, and everything were preserved. None was harmed, and none will ever be harmed. This resistance was made by Islam. It is an Islamic resistance. True this resistance is Lebanese, national, and Arab; however, this resistance is Islamic. What is presented and offered in 2000 was a true representation of Islam, the values of Islam, the morals or Islam, the teachings of Islam, the tolerance of Islam and the great Prophet of Islam Mohammad bin Abdullah (Peace be upon him and his Household). When any Muslim who claims belonging to Islam makes a good deed, he would be making himself and his religion a good favor. However, when he does a bad deed, he would be harming himself as his religion does not tolerate such an offense.

Brothers and sisters!

This is as concerning the occasion. As concerning the current status with the "Israeli" enemy, we assert the following points:

First: We stress the policy of deterring the enemy. That means that Lebanon must possess the power of deterring the enemy because this power or this policy or this strategy – call it whatever you like – is the only policy that guarantees protecting Lebanon and its territories, people, institutions, state, resources, capabilities, water, oil, gas, entity, existence, future, dignity, and sovereignty. Under the imbalance of powers with the enemy, there is not but this strategy as in fact no other serious strategy was offered that can achieve this goal or fulfill this goal.

On the Day of Resistance and Liberation, we assert our commitment to the golden equation: army-people-resistance whether it was mentioned in the ministerial statement or not. Indeed, its content is preserved in the ministerial statement. The Arabic Language saved the ministerial statement. This content – army-people-resistance – is found in the current ministerial statement. However some stop on words and terms. The content is what is important. What is important is that Lebanon owns this power to protect the country.
In the time we surely back developing the human and materialistic capabilities of the Lebanese Army, and we surely have no problem in that contrary to what some are trying to spread, I want to assert to you today that the resistance still keeps its power despite all the developments and events taking place in the region on top of which comes Syria. This is acknowledged by the enemy who takes it into consideration. On the other hand, the resistance works around the clock to develop its deterrence capability, and this is what keeps the enemy worried, as they talk about this always.

So we do not only keep the deterrence power. No, we also work to develop the deterrence capability. This is one of the points that haunt the "Israeli" enemy who is always looking at Syria, Iran, and all the friends and to what they might offer or have offered to this resistance. As far as the deterrence power is concerned, you cannot reach a point and say this is enough. You are talking about "Israel" and the "Israeli" Army which is one of the most powerful armies in the world. Consequently, it is our obligation to develop the deterrence power apart from all the marginal discussions which tackle the arms of the resistance and the future of the arms of the resistance and the point we might reach as far as this point is concerned. Let's keep this aside. However, based on our conviction in the righteousness and soundness of this equation as concerning the resistance in particular, we are working in this direction.

Second: We assert the importance of showing interest in the other suspending files concerning Lebanon in the struggle with "Israel" – including Shebaa Farms, Kfar Shuba Hills, the Lebanese section of Al Ghajar, the resistance men or the civilians who are martyrs or missed or detained and whose cases are debatable, the "Israeli" air, land, and sea violations. In that, I don't mean what is taking place now at the borderline as I will tackle that in a while. These points are what remain in the direct Lebanese-"Israeli" struggle. Indeed, the Palestinian refugees and the return of our Palestinian brethrens to their lands and properties are related to the general cause of the struggle and not the mere Lebanese section. Indeed, we need to care and be concerned in this. Let's acknowledge that there is nothing serious taking place concerning this issue. There is nothing serious. The state does not even talk about this in fact. In the ministerial statement people recall Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shouba Hills….

Even we – the resistance movements, the resistance factions, and all the people who believe in the resistance – haven't approached this cause in a serious way one way or another. Let's make self-criticism. This cause must not be neglected or removed from the list of responsibilities as a result of the events and developments that took place in the country in 2005-2006 as well as the events taking place in the region and in Syria.

Third: The situation on the international borderline with occupied Palestine. You might have noticed that the frequency of "Israeli" violations has increased lately in the past few months. That means that there are people on the borderline and near the bribed wire who are shouted on and threatened. There are peasants who would be planting their land near the bribed wire and fire would be opened in the air. In Shebaa Farms the story is repeated again and again. Lebanese shepherds and peasants would be kidnapped or attacked. In other places fire is opened. Indeed, we must stop before these points. In principle, these violations are being addressed. I am talking about the violations at the border line. I am not talking about the air, sea, and land military violations. No! Any place the "Israelis" enter to or we know beforehand that they will enter, we are concerned to confront. We have tackled this point last year, and we are working accordingly. However, I am talking about the section which has to do with what is taking place on the ground on the bribed wire at the border.

The normal address is that the Lebanese Army and the UNIFIL interfere, make contacts, and settle the issue. As long as things do not reach a serious point, it is normal that the address would be shouldered by the state and the UNIFIL. However, if such things continue, we have to reconsider things. On another hand, I tell the people – especially the residents of the front villages and the bordering villages that what is taking place on the other side on behalf of the enemy is an expression of their annoyance. They are seeing you in your land, fields, and homes living happily, dignified and proud. This is not tolerated by the "Israelis" whose entity and scheme are founded in humiliating, insulting, and aggressing against others. They can't tolerate seeing our people residing in their homes and fields, and plantations all along the border from the seashore to the peaks of mountains and they are feeling secure and moving around day and night. They can't tolerate this on the psychological level. This is part of their defeat which was afflicted on them on May 25th, 2000. However, on the other side, we want to seek extenuating reasons. It is the fear of the enemy. In the past, on this side of the border, it was we who were afraid. Our people, our peasants, our farmers, and the residents of these villages were afraid. Today those who are usurping the Palestinian territories are frightened at the other side of the borders. It is they who are afraid of the peasants, the farmers, the shovels, the spades, the trees, the branches of trees, the rustle of tree leaves, and the murmur of water. Even the murmur of water frightens these soldiers at the border.

Today, we are before an army who are in their positions. They are more frightened than frightening. This is the truth. I am not exaggerating. It is not only the "Israeli" soldiers on the borders who are frightened. You can see how they sit in their armored garrisons which are fortified with iron. Even when they carry out a land survey at the bribed wire, they resort to robots and remote-controlled unmanned vehicles. To this extent they are frightened and horrified. Fear does not end at the border. In the internal front also, the enemy's political leaders, military generals, and the usurping community of settlers are afraid of this resistance.

There is fear from the readiness of this resistance.

Whenever a shovel is used, they ask themselves what that man is doing. Whenever a house is built on the border they wonder what they are doing here.

So the issue has to do with fear. That means that the enemy looks at the other side as a serious side which is fully ready. Thus they view every sound, every movement, every activity, every construction, every act of planting, and every act of picking as directed against them. They are frightened.

Now on this very day, I tell you: As on May 25th, 2000 you roamed on the borderline and along the bribed wire, as you held weddings and raised banners. Carry on doing these things. Build and construct. Plant and roam around and do not ever fear this enemy at all. This legend has been reduced to a story from the past with small children have pleasure narrating. This enemy will never dare, and they know they will never dare. We do not want to make haste. As long as things which are being addressed are being settled, never mind. However, I will be precise, if they reached a point which required the intervention of the resistance, the resistance will not remain silent on any insult, offense, or aggression on any member of our proud loyal people along the international borders. Everything is being tackled relatively and in a proportional way. The resistance has courage, capability, and wisdom too. It considers precisely what it can do to prevent this status quo that the enemy seeks to consolidate at the border. Well this is a topic and an important issue… the status quo with the "Israelis".

The other topic is Syria.

Like on this day last year – meaning on May 25th, 2013 – from the town of Mashghara – the town of martyrs and the town of Leader Martyr Abu Hassan Bjiji and his companions, I tackled the events in Syria. I presented Hizbullah's vision of what is taking place: the scheme, the risks, the threats, the chances, and the challenges resulting from this situation on Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan and the entire region as well as the entire nation especially on Palestine and its cause as well as on Lebanon, its resistance, and its people. Indeed, I do not want to reiterate what I said in that speech. All through the past year, my brethrens and I along with our allies and friends and all those who agree with us on this vision have elaborated this point on occasions, the various communication networks, TV and radio stations…. On that day, I said that we will assume the responsibility. We will not stand as audiences. I determined the stance.

In our viewpoint, the events that took place this year assert the validity of all the analyses we did and the soundness of this stance. In general, I will reiterate again why we stand with Syria, back it, and defend it.

I only want to remind you in a couple of lines that Syria was and is still the core of Arabism. Syria stood in face of the "Israeli" extension. It guarded the Arab East including the Gulf countries against the hand of "Israel" which was seeking to found "Major Israel" from the Nile River to the Euphrates. In fact, its aspirations had no limits. Syria alone stood next to Egypt, and it is and was the only fortress of steadfastness and confrontation. It chanted of Arabism "Here is Cairo". It alone is still carrying the honor of having no communication with the enemy or agreement with the enemy or having any kind of ties with "Israel". It has guarded, supplied, and supported the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance and is still doing so. It paid the price for doing that too. It is still fighting for that. For these reasons, we are defending Syria. Why don't we have the right to defend our points of strength, our back and the source of pride for this nation, and the steadfast Arab lighthouse in face of nationalization and succumbing to "Israel"? This is at a time we find that Zionist foreigners are being brought along from all around the world to the entity usurping Palestine to defend a superstition they fabricated in their minds which are mad of crimes, killing, and racism. We believe that our stance and the reasons behind our stance are very clear.

On the contrary, today and a year following that speech, the project is even clearer. We have always used to say that there is a scheme in the region which seeks to divide the region on racial, sectarian, and factional grounds.

However – brothers and sisters – when we see what is taking place now in Syria and in more than one Arab country, we find out that the scheme is partitioning the region even more and more not only on sectarian grounds but also on the grounds of emirates, districts, and a state for every armed group. Every armed group would have its own state. Thus there would be five or six or seven states.

In the past, they used to say that they would divide Syria to three or four states and Iraq to three parts. They wanted to divide Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia. It seems that this has become part of the past. They are now talking about dividing our Arab and Islamic countries according to the number of armed groups and not according to the number of races, sects, and factions. Even in case the leaders of the very organization disagree, two states would be formed such as the state of Daesh and the state of Nosra. This is the worst images of chaos that begets chaos. This scheme must be confronted.

Today when we confront this scheme and the tools of this scheme, I want you to recall the Zionist movement - those who made "Israel" - this usurping entity. Who said that they were a group who wanted to come to Palestine? They were a group who wanted to have a state in any place in the world. Argentine was one of their choices. Uganda was another. I think that Yemen too was one of these choices as well as Palestine. It was the English who brought the Zionist Movement to Palestine. It was international colonialism and world hegemony…call it whatever you want. They brought it along to Palestine to be an advanced, military, security barrack in the heart of our region to distort our region, to destroy it, and to waste all chances for human and economic development as well as all choices of unity and raising the Arab and Islamic region. They wanted us to remain preoccupied with our wars and to move from one war to another and from one front to another until we get exhausted. They wanted us to resort to the maker of our enemy to seek power and protection from. Well, it was they who brought along the Zionist project to Palestine. It was they who brought the Zionists along from all around the world to Palestine. This is a historical sin. Today, this sin is reiterated. But how? Indeed, they sought and gained Arab support and signatures from Arab leaders in exchange to securing their thrones. This took place some sixty or seventy years ago.

Today this scene is taking place again. America and the West and those who are with them are bringing along all the terrorists and Takfiri groups from all around the world. They are offering facilitations, visas, funds, arms, media and political cover, and an international decision…. They are bringing them along to Syria? What for? They are doing so to destroy Syria and to destroy the axis of the resistance which is by now threatening the very existence of the Zionist scheme in the region. This is the major new modern sin.

Or else, is this a coincidence? They were brought along from all around the world to Syria. This never took place in any other place… Even in Afghanistan, that did not take place to that extent, level, and magnitude. They are brought along from all around the world, and they are offered facilitations. Governments are doing that. Intelligence bodies are running that. They are brought along from Syria to get engaged in this tough, harsh, and fierce battle.

Anyway, this understanding is expanding in Syria, in the Arab world, in the Islamic world, and in the entire world. Many of the questions which were not being posed at first are now being posed and raised intensively on a broad scope.

Well, based on this vision and understanding, we said that we assume this responsibility, and actually we assumed this responsibility. Thus we went where we went. As you know, we actually do not tackle this issue in details in the media. Well, we went where we went and in broad daylight. We said that this is the topic, these are the reasons, and this is the target.

Today, where did the situation in Syria reach? Where did this scheme reach?

No doubt, the scheme which targeted Syria and the region retreated to a great degree today. It was afflicted with several defeats. No doubt several elements contributed to that whether local – meaning on the level of Syria – regional, or international – meaning world events. However, the main element remains the battlefield. Among all these changes and elements, the battlefield remains the main element. It is the steadfastness of Syria and its leadership, army, and people. Consequently, here comes the importance of the extra element: the allies and the friends whether in the political, media, security, military, or popular position. Hadn't Syria –and its leadership, army, and people - remained steadfast itself in face of this global war, all the other extra elements wouldn't have been decisive and essential.

One of the important elements is the exposure of the truth about the fighting groups in Syria or most of the fighting groups and the truth about their ideas, conduct, and struggles. That caused a major chance in the Syria public opinion itself as well as the Arab and international public opinions.

It was made crystal clear that those who were brought along to threaten Syria had themselves turned to be a threat to everyone. This is also among the repercussions. They are threatening the states that provided them with funds and that brought them along and supported them and backed them and encouraged them. They had become themselves a threat to everyone and to the world which dispatched them to Syria. I said before that they dispatched them to destroy Syria and the axis of the resistance to get rid of them. However, it seems that this world found out that Syria and the axis of the resistance did not collapse and that many of those whom they dispatched to be killed are still alive and some of them want to return to their first field – to Europe or to other place. Thus today there is a cause titled "the fighters returning from Syria" which is threatening European, international, and world security. How are the states to deal with this threat?

One of the most important factors which we must pose before is the disclosure of the "Israeli" involvement in the events taking place in Syria. Previously, when we used to say that "Israel" is supporting the fighters, they used to tell us that we are exaggerating. Now things are taking place openly. It is not the case of a "kind wall" as was the case here. It is not the issue of submitting an injured to a hospital. No, there are relations, policies, and political meetings. It seems that the despair of the so called opposition coalition had reached a stage in which they are meeting with desperate enemies such as Monafiqi Khalq or other opposition groups in Europe. That proved to be fruitless. No! Now there are ties with the "Israelis". There are cooperation, logistic aids, and military aids at the borders of Golan Heights. That means that there are targets for the Arab Syrian Army which are being shelled by the "Israelis" to the benefit of the armed opposition and the armed groups. Today, we are before a new project at the border line in Golan Heights. This is a threat. Here I am telling all the Syrians: This painful and tough experience would not devolve upon the Syrians, the Palestinians, and everyone but with despair and shame as the experience that took place at the borderline in Lebanon.

There is also the exposure of the magnitude of the threat posed by these groups also on the neighboring states in particular including Lebanon.

Now in the light of all of these elements which I mentioned and which I did not mention, we can say that Syria currently has remained steadfast, the axis of the resistance has remained steadfast, the axis of the resistance is intact, and Syria is intact. To say that the other scheme would make a true or decisive victory is over. Now Syria is advancing and the axis of the resistance is advancing. Syria is advancing in the battlefield. This is what you are following up with. Popular reconciliations are advancing pursuant to the change in the public disposition and inner reconsiderations for many of the political forces and the popular groups. Syria is advancing towards presidential elections which all intimidations and mockery made by the so called friends of Syria could not cripple, prevent, or thwart. Thus the Syrian people are advancing towards polls and we will see the scenes. Now they are resorting to crippling the elections in Syria where it is possible to carry elections with the power of iron and fire.

All of us have heard yesterday on the news that Daesh – in the region of Hasakeh for example among other regions – had announced that it is forbidden that anyone partake in elections even in regions which are not under its control but still within the reach of its fire. It has sentenced to death penalty anyone who partakes in the elections.

Well, see this great alternative which was brought to the Syrian people. I have a political viewpoint, and I want to vote. I might vote for President Bashar Assad or another candidate. This civilized alternative which was presented by the friends of Syria is saying that should I go to the ballots, my blood would be permissible and I would be sentenced to death penalty. Indeed, that is not something new. This is the mentality of Daesh – meaning the Islamic State in Iraq and Sham – which had judged on all Iraqis who partake in elections in Iraq whether Shiites, Sunnites, Muslims, or Christians as disbelievers. It bombed them and dispatched to them booby-trapped cars. It judged them as disbelievers, apostates, and even as fighters against Allah and His prophet. So they do not only label you as a disbeliever; they even judge on you as a fighter against Allah and His prophet. Thus you are sentenced to death. This is the ideal sample being presented now in Syria.

What I am saying is that Syria is advancing towards elections, and the true challenge is that you allow the Syrian people – especially in the regions under the fire of the armed groups to express their viewpoint and to go for ballots. Indeed, this is not allowed because under the state of Daesh, the state of Nosra, and the state of Al Qaeda, elections are prohibited. They are not only prohibited; they are even viewed as a show of disbelief and apostasy. Elections are a war against Allah and His Prophet. Well, if you have your own jurisprudence and your own viewpoint, why are you imposing them on all Muslims? Many Muslim scholars and jurists and senior authorities whether among Sunnites and Shiites have another viewpoint. They have another juristic vision on elections.

Anyway, today and after all of these developments, I may say as I wrap the Syrian topic that:

In 2006, there was a scheme at the level of the region; however, the battle was in Lebanon. That was tackled by Condoleezza Rice as the "Neo Middle East". Well, the battle was in Lebanon. We – the Lebanese resistance with all its factions and forces, the Lebanese Army, and the Lebanese people - fought that scheme and aborted it. Syria was by our side. Iran was by our side. Many of the honorable people in the world were by our side. That version was toppled in 2006. So it was not the scheme of the "Neo Middle East" which was toppled, but rather it was that version of that scheme which was toppled. Now they brought along a new version for that scheme to the region; however, this time the battlefield is in Syria. Those who are fighting there are the Syrian leadership, the Syrian Army, and the Syrian people. Their friends are standing by their side. Let's not exaggerate. There were some exaggerations at one time to the effect that Syria as an army, leadership, and people are somewhere else, and that those who are fighting in Syria are the so and so side and the such and such side.

That is not true. There are a people, an army, a state, and a leadership which are fighting in the Syrian square. The friends are offering a kind of aid which might vary from one place to another.

Now this front is steadfast. That scheme has started to collapse. As we are in the era of victories, here I am telling you that Inshallah this scheme will be toppled in Syria, and that Syria and the axis of the resistance will gain victory. This nation will not allow the American scheme to impose its agenda, ideas, and goals on us. Listen to me. Here we are scoring against each other. Indeed, I am making an analysis, and surely I trust in Allah Al Mighty and the divine promise pursuant to the reasons, results, and the preludes leading to such results…

Who was to say that Syria would be as steadfast as it is today? Who was to say that a day would come in which we would see this situation in many of the Syrian cities? Three or four years ago, they used to say that in two or three months, Syria would collapse.

A day will come in which all facts will be revealed and on that day the peoples of the region, the governments of the region, the states of the regions and even many of the world states would thank Syria, its leadership, its army, and its army for their steadfastness and victory because they will discover that in its steadfastness, Syria had kept away many catastrophes and risks. It had prevented many repercussions on the level of the entire region on top of which come Palestine, the Palestinian cause, and the Islamic and Christian sanctities in Palestine. Here I am telling you that a day will come when even the governments which conspired against Syria and offered money and instigated – and some are still doing so – will regret their deeds and thank Syria for its steadfastness, firmness, and victory. The same applies to Lebanon and to all those who criticized our intervention in Syria. It is the very story as in the case of the resistance. A day will come on which they will hail us. Now, they might not say that in the media, but under the table many are saying so even now….

The last point which I will very briefly tackle is the local file.

Indeed the main issue is the presidential issue. At this moment I want to say that we are before a very important and critical stage that started from this very day (May 25).

Exchanging accusations is something very broadly widespread in Lebanon. It is something very normal. The men want to get occupied; so they start accusing: You crippled. You caused the lack of quorum…. There are also the regional and local influences… Well, in fact, there is no need to stop before all these stories. This is normal. This took place and will continue to happen. But this is not serious. In fact, in rumors and accusations, one can say whatever he wants.

I want to say that we must deal with this sensitive and critical stage with repose and without tension. Indeed, some people said this is a serious event. We do not argue over that. However, that does not mean that people lose their temper, and the country plunge into the unknown. We must be calm and precise. We must reserve this level of civil peace and internal stability while people sit somewhere to talk together and negotiate over the presidential issue. I am talking about the internal forces and not about the regional forces. What is important is that all of us exert every effort possible to shorten the time span and to have a president elected as soon as possible. Let no one really have the intention to waste time waiting for regional changes or international alterations….

We call for dealing with this matter seriously.

Indeed we do not have enough time to tackle the presidential topic elaborately. I will only say this. There is still a true, internal, Lebanese chance to elect a strong president who is able to reserve stability and peace in the country and who enjoys a true popular status in his milieu and on the national level and who is also able to appease the various political forces and sides and to offer Lebanon a true helping hand to overpass this hard stage at the local, regional, and international levels.

This chance is still available. There is an overt serious negotiation taking place between the Reform and Change Bloc and the Future Movement or the leader of the Future Movement. They have been negotiating and having a serious argument for a period of time by now.

I do not want to start an argument. I only want to describe in a couple of phrases what has been taking place so far. It is challenging candidacy that is blocking the way before a serious candidacy. What has been taking place so far is presenting challenging candidates which do not aim at reaching the presidential post or carrying presidential elections. Everyone knows that this candidate has no chance of reaching the post of the president neither by two thirds of the votes nor by the half plus one equation. So this candidacy only aims at blocking the way before a serious candidacy which is being discussed in national lobbies.

As today is already May 25th there is no problem in saying – on my responsibility and based on my information and the contacts that took place with us and with many of our friends – that the true project in the past days, weeks, or even months was not at all electing a president before May 25th. I mean that the project of the other bloc was not true election but rather extending the term of the president. That was their true project. So let no one say elections were crippled. They didn't want to elect a president. They wanted to extend the term of the president. This is the truth. It is to say things as they are. For this extension, many tempting offers were made. I do not want to disclose secrets now. Actually, I don't usually play this role. However, no secrets are kept in this country. Everything would be revealed in some days.

So what happened so far concerning the elections is that a challenging candidate who won't win the election by any chance as is well-known was nominated to block the way before a serious candidate who might reach the presidential post. Thus electing a president was crippled for the interest of extending for the president. This is what flopped. The project of extension flopped.

Now, what are the reasons? Why was this stance taken? What are the reasons? This is what took place. Let no one say otherwise.

No! The chance available for the parliament was never a chance of electing of president. It was rather a chance of extension only.

Well, what is important now is to continue working. Indeed, between parentheses I will say what I said at the very beginning. In case any of them said that we – The Loyalty to Resistance Bloc – are the bloc to be most blamed, we will have no problem in that – meaning in them holding us responsible. Let them say whatever they want. Let them say we crippled the country, we crippled the elections, and we crippled many things.

Aren't you who are saying that the status of the president and the person of the president are great in this country? So there is no place for courtesies and joking or embarrassing the other. This is an issue of historic national responsibility because we are in a critical historic stage.

Thus there is no problem. Here I am telling you. We – Hizbullah and the Loyalty to Resistance Bloc – on behalf of our brethrens the deputies assume the responsibility. This is exclusively our hanger. Hang on it what appeals to you. There is no problem in that.

What would be added to all what we have been hearing in all the past years? You want to cripple. You want vacuum. You want to change the country. You want to change the state. You want to change the regime. Say whatever appeals to you.

What is important here is the serious endeavor. People must carry on negotiations seriously to reach somewhere which might open the gate for getting out of this vacancy.

This is concerning the presidential issue. Indeed, we are open, responsive, and serious. We want a president as soon as possible. We want a president but indeed we were not with extending the term of the president.

Let me say this word today though I wanted to postpone it to a future occasion. However, as today is the Day of the Resistance, I will say that we do not want to bear the presidential issue what it can't bear. We want a president who secures stability.

We have an internal inclination. However, at times the terms used in speeches prevail. We agreed with the brethrens that there is no need to use even the term "we want a president who protects the resistance". There is no need for such terms.

On May 25th, 2014, I tell you that we are not searching for a president who protects the resistance in Lebanon. We are not searching for that. The resistance in Lebanon protects the state, the people, the nation, the entity, the honor, the sovereignty, and the nation.

Our goal is humble. We are not saying we want a president who protects the resistance. I will remind you of 2006 and what I said in 2006. We want a president who does not conspire against the resistance. We want a president who does not stab the resistance in the back. We want a president who has a firm stance from the resistance. That's what we want.

We are not putting a hard condition. Anyway, is such an option available in the country? Yes, it is.

Also as far as the local issue is concerned, no matter what situation we are heading to, we have a wish to make today. Call it a wish. Call it a recommendation. Call it a shout. Call it whatever you wish. There is a file called the series of ranks and salaries which has to do with the employees and the public sector - with the teachers and the militants who are holding their blood on their palms in more than one region in this country. We hope that this would remain detached from the conflict and the dispute to come. Let it be an exception along with the Lebanese University. Let these two files at least be detached. We call, recommend, demand, and hope that the government, the parliament, and the political forces hear our call. It is not allowed that these files be postponed until after settling the political issues.

We are all saying that we want a president and we want a state for the sake of the people. Don't sacrifice the people for the sake of the president or for what must be at your service. We hope that this would be taken into consideration.

Dear ones! On this occasion – the anniversary of the victory of May 25th – we must all trust our power and our capacity to confront challenges – whatever kind of challenges. We must all trust our power and capacity to make victories no matter how fierce confrontations are.

Thanks for the golden equation, we do not fear "Israel" and its intimidations, greed, and threats. The scheme of attacking the region and the axis of resistance in the region and the nation in the region started to break down. The axis of the resistance is intact. It is advancing, and it will gain victory. What is important here in the Lebanese internal is that we guard our country and its civil peace and coexistence. We must consider our choices very well. We must make the choices that guard and preserve this country and the future of this country.

Our oath to all the leaders: to the leader and founder of the resistance Sayyed Mussa Sader (May Allah restore him and his friends safe and sound) and to the martyr leaders: Sayyed Abbass, Sheikh Ragheb, and Hajj Imad, our oath to our nation, to our people, to our peoples, and to all the honorable people that we will stay adherent to this position together. We will remain steadfast and firm. We will resist and make victory in this era of victories.

Peace be upon you and Allah's mercy and blessings.