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Friday, June 6, 2014

Media rage in Russia - how long can the Kremlin resist it?

It is always tricky to try to get a sense of what is happening in a country by parsings its media as there is often a big disconnect between what the talking heads say and what most of the people really feel.  And yet, this can a useful exercise in the following circumstances:

A) The media is pretty tightly controlled by the regime in power at which point is can be analyzed to see what kind of "consent manufacturing" or "opinion massaging" is being performed.  For example, most wars are normally preceded by media vilification campaign against the other side.  Thus, observing such a vilification campaign can be considered as an "indicator" or even "warning" of a possible military attack, especially is other indicators and warnings point to the same eventual outcome

B) The media is more or less independent from the regime, but primarily linked to the national elites and their agenda.  Here again, because these elites, by definition, have power and access, they can use the media to put pressure on the formal leaders of the country.  Think of the Israel Lobby and its use of the US media to promote the wars on Iraq, Iran and Syria.

C) Finally, the media can be more or less "in tune with" the general public and its concerns, hopes and ideas, at which point it can offer a good insight into what is going on.

Regardless of which of the models above applies to Russia (for what it is worth, I personally think that it is a mix of the three), it is, I strongly believe, very important to note the following fact: three of the most popular shows on Russian TV have increasingly become strident in their outrage over what is happening in the Ukraine, over the US's hypocrisy and over the need to put a stop to the atrocities committed by the Ukrainian junta.  These shows are:
  • Sunday Evening with Vladimir Soloviev (Воскресный Вечер с Владимиром Соловьевым)
  • Politics with Petr Tolstoi (Политика с Петром Толстым)
  • News of the Week with Dmitri Kiselev (Вести Недели с Дмитрием Киселевым)
I think that it is worth saying a few words about these shows.

Sunday Evening with Vladimir Soloviev:

This show is hosted by a very famous personality, Vladimir Soloviev, who is a very interesting guy.  Soloviev is a Jew, and he is not shy about reminding his audience about it, who was even elected as a member of the Presidium of the Russian Jewish Congress.  He is also a Russian patriot who categorically denies that there is anti-Semitism in Russia, much less so state sponsored, and he is a very outspoken supporter of Putin and his policies.  He is categorically opposed to the junta in Kiev and to Ukie neo-Nazism and he does not mince his words about them.  He has several shows where in often invites very controversial personalities, including Zhirinovsky, which he very skillfully interviews.  While Soloviev's style is definitely "popular", he is also very smart, quick to think on his feet, well read and outspoken to a degree few Russian journalists dare to me.  His position on the Ukraine is simple: he as a Jew and as a Russian has zero tolerance for Ukie nationalism, neo-Nazism or Banderism.  He is a determined and total enemy of the new regime.

Politics with Peter Tolstoi:

I would describe this show as a somewhat more sophisticated version of the previous one, possibly addressed at a more mature audience.  The host, Petr Tolstoi, and his co-host, Alexander Gordon (another patriotic Russian Jew), are more soft spoken in their style, but they are also no less anti-junta and anti-Nazi than Soloviev.  Their show regularly has guest from the Ukraine, including high visibility ones like Oleg Tsarev or representatives of the self-declared popular republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

New of the Week with Dmitri Kiselev:

Kiselev is often see as the "voice of the Kremlin" which has recently appointed him to run the newly created official Russian media agency "Rossiia Segodnia" (which in English translates into "Russia Today" but which should not be confused with the RT TV Channel run by Margarita Simonian).  Kiselev is a very outspoken critic of the West for which he is absolutely hated by the western media which accuses him of homophobia, anti-Semitism, propaganda, lies, etc.  Unlike the two previous shows I mentioned, "News of the Week" is what is called an "author's news show" in Russia, a mix of news and personal commentary.  It airs on Sunday evenings.

The first thing which I noticed is that the two first shows which, in theory, are weekly shows have for a while no run special editions on a regular basis.  For example, Soloviev's "Sunday Evening" show can now regularly be seen on week days, sometimes several times in the same week, besides its normal Sunday airtime.  Clearly these shows are in a full overdrive mode.

Second, it is hard to convey here the level of absolute rage, disgust and frustration of most of the hosts and guests about the situation in the Ukraine.  Furthermore, those few representatives of the pro-US Russian "liberal" non-system opposition (too small get make it to the Duma) or the representatives of Yanukovich's "Party of Regions" who dare to show up often end up being literally mobbed, if not by the hosts, then by the other guests.  As for the hosts, they politely but mercilessly rip apart all the arguments of these two categories of guests.  Pro-junta guests from the Ukraine, they don't dare show up on these shows anymore (they tried in the past, and got mercilessly destroyed each time).  Kiselevs' show being more of a newscast, he does feature statements or interviews made by pro-US or pro-junta people, but they are always followed by a blunt rebuttal of their arguments and a passionate denunciation of their hypocrisy.

I took these three examples because of their high visibility but this also applies to the rest of the Russian TV media.  Even those channels (like Ren-TV) or journalists (like Tatiana Mitkova) who used to be very "democratic" and "liberal" have radically changed their tune.  Now they are almost on the frontline of the anti-junta and generally anti-western journalism in Russia.  Oh sure, some liberal leftovers from the past (like that ugly old fart Pozner) still have their shows on air, and some TV (Dozhd) or radio (Ekho Moskvy) stations still parrot the "Psaki" narrative, but they are clearly struggling to survive and their audience is becoming smaller and smaller.

So what does that all mean for Putin?

Contrary to some of the "armchair strategist" who post comments here about Putin of selling out, being a coward or a hypocrite, something in the range of 80% of Russians support him and his handling of the events in the Ukraine.  So far, his personal position and authority are as rock solid as ever.  However, watching the amazing evolution of the Russian TV over the past few months, I come to one of three possible conclusions:

1) If hypothesis A above is correct, then the Kremlin is engaged in a massive PR campaign to prepare the Russian public for a military intervention in the Ukraine.
2) If hypothesis B above is correct, then there is a very influential segment of the Russian elites which is engaged in a campaign to force the Kremlin to militarily intervene in the Ukraine.
3) If hypothesis C above is correct, then there is such a groundswell of outrage and disgust in the Russian public opinion that the Kremlin will have no other choice but to militarily intervene to stop the terror operations of the junta.

As I said above, my personal feeling that the reality of Russian media today is a mix of A+B+C, in which case there is a gradual coalescing of anger and determination taking place on all levels of the Russian society which will eventually result in a Russian military intervention against the Ukrainian death squads in Novorossia.

All this is to make the following point: when I wrote yesterday that the "crazies", as I called them might, well get what they want (a Russian military intervention) - I really meant it.  I still think that this would be very bad for Russia, the Ukraine and Europe, but that does not mean that I am oblivious to the fact that it might happen, very soon in fact.

My sense is that Poroshenko or, more accurately his puppet-masters in Washington, have just a few days left to stop the so-called "anti terrorist operation".  From the recent meeting in France, I get mixed messages.  Merkel and Hollande probably would prefer that this insanity stop now.  But Obama and his puppet-masters?  Simply put, and no matter how hard Putin might try, there are provocations which the Kremlin simply cannot ignore.

Today I heard that there are already 12'000 refugees just in the Rostov-on-the-Don area.  That means that the real numbers are way higher.  Furthermore, the Ukie Air Force is now using cluster munitions and deliberate attacks on local towns and villages which are pretty much getting flattened or, at leas, burned to the ground.  And I did get a confirmation that the Ukrainian death squads have executed wounded combatants in a hospital near Kramatorsk.  In the meantime, Putin has informally met with Poroshenko in France, the (completely incompetent) Russian ambassador to Kiev has returned from his "consultations" in Moscow and he will attend the inauguration of Poroshenko.  While I fully understand what the Kremlin is doing (denying the US the kind of "enemy" it wants) and while I fully support that goal, I am also aware that this policy cannot be sustained much longer and that something will have to happen soon, very soon.  Right now, my personal hunch, my guesstimate, is that the US will over-rule the EU and that Poroshenko will not only continue, but even escalate the junta's terror operations in the east and southeast.  If that is indeed what happens, Russia will intervene, there is, alas, no doubt in my mind at all. How?

What a Russian military intervention might look like

Russia might pretend try to get a UNSC resolution supporting a peacemaking operation of the CSTO in the Ukraine, if only just to make sure that all legal options have been exhausted.  Then I would expect to see a no-fly zone declared over the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, combined with the opening, by force if needed (it will), of humanitarian corridors towards these regions.  At this point I expect the Ukie junta to fold and run, but if some units do not, they will be destroyed.  The purely military phase of this intervention will take no more than 24 hours and will more or less stop at the administrative border between the Lugansk and Donetsk regions and the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhie regions.  If directly threatened, of course, Russian forces could strike deeper inside the rest of the Ukraine, targeting missile/artillery positions or enemy airpower (in the air or on the ground).  At this point I would expect some EU leader to do what Sakozy did in 08.08.08 and travel to Moscow to agree to a ceasefire which Moscow would accept.  Once the situation in the Donbass is more or less stabilized, I would expect Russia to pull out most of Russian forces, probably "forgetting a few "goodies" here and there, not unlike what happened in South Ossetia.  Finally, and especially if the EU continues to allow the US to imposed its insane and counter-productive foreign policy (or what passes for it) on Europe, I would expect Russia to recognize the People's Republic of Novorossia and provide it with security guarantees (again, the model of Ossetia and Abkhazia applies).

Again, I would prefer if a solution could be found without an overt Russian military intervention, but obviously that does not depend on me.  The Americans are stuck, they have failed at everything, and they have no other choice than to engage in a idiotic media campaign to convince the world that "Putin has blinked" and that "Obama is a tough President".  This is quite ridiculous, of course, as this is not about a John Wayne style "blinking exercise" but about the future of the European continent.  But the European politicians are so corrupt, so spineless, so mediocre and so incompetent (remember how Boris Johnson, Mayor of London called some of them "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies"?) that they will probably let the Americans decide the future or Europe for them.

I hope that I am wrong, but chances are that a Russian military intervention will happen in the not too distant future.

The Saker

144 comments:

Crossvader said...

Putin is starting to look pathetic. The trip to Normandy - where Americans always proclaim that it was them who won WWII - was ridiculuos. Any Russian President should customarily boycott the event, unless afforded a speech ( where he could highlight Nazi marches in today's Baltics and Ukraine, apparently condoned by the USA).
I supported Putin 24/7 during all these years. Starting to re-evaluate it. He had all the momentum in the world after Crimea. Now squandered.

Anonymous said...

On May 29th Alexander Dugin wrote that a change of mind has occurred in the Kremlin and hinted that a Russian intervention will start in 10 days. Yesterday he said that he expects the "Donbass problem" to be solved over the course of next week. He may be wrong. He wants an intervention and humans have a tendency to overestimate the likelihood of the outcomes they want. If a decision really has been made, why would anyone blab to Dugin about it?

It's not impossible though. Remember that time many weeks ago when troops started moving, but were then called off and an exercise was declared? Putin was probably hesitating then. He may come to hesitate again. And then do it. Or not.

TicoTiger said...

I believe your analysis is spot on. I do not believe, however, that Putin's upcoming military intervention will play into the hands of the west (even if western politicians think that is what will happen), nor despite most learned opinions a couple of weeks ago. Putin has had to wait until more of the atrocities and murder of the evil puppet-master's puppet regime came into the light of day. I think it is obvious each day to more and more people of the world that Putin has taken the high road consistently since this mess started. Anyone who actually looks for truth realises the Ukrainian people are expendable and the west and their oligarch buddies are completely inhuman. The fact that the high road also leads to war is sad but necessary. Any other course will diminish the power that Putin now wields on behalf of goodness. He bears such a tremendous responsibility and deserves all our prayers and support.

A_Chinese said...

I think Putin's strategy is very smart. He is trying to do everything he could not to intervene and letting the Ukraine government to do the stupid things. So in case he does intervene, he will have the most of the support from home and sympathy from Europeans. If he is lucky and plays right, this could be the end of NATO.

I think there are probably two major reasons that He doesn't want and shouldn't to intervene.

1, Economic burden of owning the Ukraine is too big.

2, Alienating Germany and other European.

If military intervention is to inevitable, he should wait until enough European public feel disgust by what Ukraine government's behavior and enough outrage in eastern Ukraine at their Kiev government.

As for the US government, owning the Kiev government is too big economic and political liability, the only way out for them is to get Russia involved.

Anonymous said...

so what is he saying to Obama?

Showdown in Ukraine - 7 dead - Page 119 - David Icke's Official Forums

Soarintothesky said...

My sentiment on looking at Russian language satellite TV via Hotbird is that Russian news media (as opposed to the current affairs prgrammes you quote) changed a gear after 21 February. It went into war mode. RTR had a regular round up on the Ukranian crisis which was wholly focused on creating an aggressive mood. The Ukranians did give them ammunition, of course but there were things that went the other way that RTR ignored. I think RTR did this on instructions from some faction in the Kremlin. Let us not think that the Russian government thinks as one about the Ukranian issue (Medvedev made a strong return for a while). However, when in Russia I live in the provinces, far from Moscow. I am the only non FSU foreigner my monoglot Russian friends have ever met. They are mostly from families that had higher social rank in the USSR (former town clerk for community of 50k people now works as jobbing builder for example). They are dying for a fight. Like the Grannies in Donetsk, they seen to think that a fight will give them the USSR back. They make A satelite and chaos (Sputnik i Pogrom) look very liberal. Most vote communist. The news feed for the younger ones is SaveDonbass and Russkaya Pravda. I think they represent most of Russias underemployed and disappointed. Those in good jobs with a future ahead do not want conflict in Ukraine.

Taking over the D & L oblasts in their entirety is foolish. The countryside is Ukranian. Donetsk and the surrounding cities are half Ukranian. Only in Lugansk and the surrounding cities is there a large preponderance of Great Russians. Can there be a population exchange between D & L? At least of the Grannies and the underemployed retired officers? It's a thought experiment not a recommendation.

Anonymous said...

Sadly...events seem to be heading in the direction of Russian intervention. When Right Sector and National Guard thugs are rounding up male citizens between 18 and 40 -- and shooting wounded in hospital -- then the rubicon has been crossed. (Bet those guys rounded-up wish they'd joined Strelkov, rather than waiting around for Junta to find them...). That said -- it's all very VERY sad. The blood is on Obama, Nuland, EU and Anglo-Zionist Neo-Con filth. AGS

N. Solntseff said...

I think that Putin is currently using his black-belt judo skill to feint in order th draw the Anglo/US/NATO/CIA/GCHQ (AUNCG) elements into action. After this happens, Russian forces will be morally justified in a warlike reply.

Let us hope that sober minds prevail in the West!

Solntseff
(living in Canada)

Soarintothesky said...

Crossvader, Russia is facing a big recession. Putin has more substantial issues to deal with than romantic nationalists in another country. He is the President of the Russian Federation not the Fuhrer of the Great Russian folk. Stopping Ukraine taking the Russian economy even further down is the biggest concern. The second fastest growing big economy right now is the UK, not a developing country and its manufacturing led(China's still ahead). The climate has changed. Russia is at full employment and full capacity. What's left of its technical base is still in the 1970's. Productivity has to go up. The means to acheive this is foreign investment. Putin is damned if he doesn't (mount a useless symbolic invasion of Lugansk) and damned if he does. It's the price of annexing Crimea. There's always a price.

Anonymous said...

Putin is sending out confusing signals imho.

Putin and Poroshenko also agreed that there is “no alternative” to “peaceful political means” to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Speaking at a press-conference later on Friday, Vladimir Putin told journalists that he welcomes Poroshenko’s "positive thinking" on resolving the Ukrainian crisis and his position that the bloodshed “should be immediately stopped.” He, however, did not give any details of the plan, saying that journalists should ask Poroshenko himself if they want to know more.

and here having a joke with Obama?

Elysee Rencontre entre Barack Obama et Vladimir Poutine en marge du déjeuner des Chefs d'Etat #DDay70 4h ago • Share

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@EVERTYBODY:

Putin has just made a cautiously optimistic statement about Poroshenko. He said that Poroshenko wanted to stop all combat operations in the East and that he had a plan to do so. He said that Poroshenko has shared this plan with Putin but that it would be for Poroshenko to make it public. Still, Putin cautioned everybody by saying that it is one thing to present a plan in France, and quite another to present it in Kiev . He concluded by saying that if such a peace plan was implemented then this would open the way for a comprehensive reassessment of Russian-Ukrainian relations including their economic ties.

So it appears that Poroshenko, Merkel and possibly Hollande are trying to do something to stop the US plan, but that Putin is very dubious about whether they have what it takes to go from words to concrete action.

A lot of well-informed sources say that Poroshenko controls nothing anyway, and that the local CIA station chief is taking all the decisions. So if, like I think, Obama and his puppets will over-rule Merkel and Hollande, then a Russian military intervention will happen.

"Anonymous" above quoted Dugin as saying that the intervention will happen in 10 days. I am not a big fan of Dugin, but that sounds about right to me.

The Saker

Anonymous said...

One thing for sure, if Putin decides there is no alternative but to use a show of force against the US-sponsored forces in Ukraine, he will have mentally prepared himself to go the whole way to defend Russia should the lunatics not take the hint.

Anonymous said...

saker all is well but it is better if russian intention are not disclosed.

Anonymous said...

"Donetsk and the surrounding cities are half Ukranian."

The Donetsk and Lugansk regions are overwhelmingly Russian-speaking. I'd say over 95%. When the census asks people what ethnicity they belong to, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizen can go with either Russian or Ukrainian based on his current opinion of local politics or just his mood that day.

24% of Crimeans called themselves Ukrainians in the last census. Yet according to Pew, an American polling firm, 88% of them recently wanted the Ukrainian government to recognize their referendum (the one that reunited them with Russia). Only 4% did not want their referendum recognized. The rest were undecided. I guarantee to you that in the next census the percentage identifying themselves as Ukrainians will be at least halved.

If a person feels himself split between two identities, or belonging to both of them, what sort of events can push him into a single identity? Attempts to ban and demonize his native language, airstrikes against civilians like him - stuff like that.

The jdea that only economic losers in the former USSR are nostalgic about Soviet days is a Western fantasy. You'd love if that were true, so you just assume that it is true. Trust me, there js a lot of nostalgia at all levels.

JakeS said...

What sort of plan could they have cooked up? If they were any sort of sensible they would conclude that the situation of the far right having all the guns, and holding the government to ransom whilst receiving 1% of the vote was unsustainable. Kiev, Donbass and Russia have to be rid of them for their to be any possibility of peace IMO.

Anonymous said...

Putin shakes hands with Porosenko (piggy son in Russian - my own nickname for him), the news from today hint that Putin somehow managed to influence the situation positively and maybe there won't be an intervention after all.

But in all cases, this right to intervene will be used only in the worst case scenario. Which has not yet kicked in.

Anonymous said...

I guess the only observation worth adding is this.

The atrocities being committed by CIA-financed Neo-Nazi criminals can only, realistically, have one goal: drawing in Russian troops.

There can be no other goal. Uniting Ukraine? Obviously not. Putting Ukraine on its feet economically? Obviously not.

No, this is the bully's provocation. But bully's don't do well when someone stands up to them.

Putin's intelligence, I believe, is excellent. He knows where everything is and where everyone is. He can act. I don't know what he wants to do.

Anonymous said...

My friends

my heart hurts very much when I realize where we are and where we are heading.

I pray for all the people involved on all sides that the madness of hatred and agression may pass as soon as possible and a peaceful period may the ensue !!!

Anonymous said...

Saker, Dugin said "10 days" on May 29th, 8 days ago. So he meant this coming Sunday. Here's the text:

http://m.vk.com/wall18631635_2884

And yesterday he implied that this will only affect the Donbass.

http://m.vk.com/wall18631635_2930

He said that his hopes for the rest of eastern Ukraine are pegged on the fall of this year, when IMF and EU austerity will start to bite and more regions will succumb to unrest.

Daniel Rich said...

War bleeds a country to death. Be it financially, physically or otherwise. One can defend oneself and be morally right, but in an attack, the defense of righting a wrong does not equate a win. The dustbin of history is littered with the carcasses of those who have tried. I don't know Putin and I most certainly can't read his mind. The only option left [to me] is to geustimate his [in]action/s. I'm not good at chess, but I most certainly would not move my queen [the combined armed forces] out into the open and expose them to attacks from all sides. I would use the Ukraine as a 'boat fender' [for the time being] until the USS 'We Keep FF-ng U Over' has sailed home.

Anonymous said...

I still think even Obama might be on board with a plan to wipe out rightsector now thatthey are geographically isolated away from the kievcrowds that ran interference for them previously. Obama should understand the GOP is also out on a limb and they can be crushedby getting them to scream for Russian blood while not understanding how horrifying and disqualifying that is to intelligent independents libertarians and trueconservatives. The Dems will win if they subvert neocons.

Mohamed said...

Dear Saker,

Who is the Chocolate King, but a boy of Putin. And, where does he sells most of his Chocolate, beside Mother Russia.

Best regards,

Mohamed.

Auslander said...

Sadly, Saker, I think you are correct.

I've been around for a few moons and I've never seen the war drums beating so loud in USA and EU as now. Are they crazy, mentally deranged, or just plain stupud?

They have made the huge mistake of underestimating both Mr. Putin and the new Russian armed forces and, most important, the Russian People.

My sources say that Pyatt specifically told chocboy to get on with the job and get it done in their little meeting before chocboy left for Normandy. Chocboy will not stop even though Mr. Putin gave him an out at Normandy. I told VCO on 01 December, the day I also told her Yanukovich would loose to the coup d'etat, that Tyagnibok, Poroshenko and Yarush, all of them, would not stop, they will never stop until we kill them.

I agree with Saker in that the Russian Army will stop first at the boundaries of Donbas Republic. Most of the Uke army will surrender en mass. Right sector and perhaps a few Ukes will fight. They will die. The Uke Air Force will cease to exist the first day. The pitiful remains of the Uke Navy will cease to exist the first day. Humanitarian aid will at the same time pour in to Donbas from Russia and China. Yes, China.

Within a week Mr. Putin, faced with still continuous provocations from Kiev and EU/UK/US, will be forced to move west to the Dnepr. With more provocations the Russian Army and Navy will then take the south coast all the way west to Moldova and in the process free Odessa from the right sector terrorists.

The steady stream of supply flights and replacement airframes from Poland and the FRG will be given a binary solution. Stop or go down in flames. They will try a flight or two, Mr. Putin will do what he said he would do, and the flights will stop.

All this will be done to a screaming crescendo from EU/UK, USA and that military powerhouse Canada. To no avail. Sanctions will be piled on from The West and the EU economy will go deeper in to the toilet than it already is. Many of the EU citizens are seething as it is against the idiocy of their political masters. Some heads may roll if all this comes to pass.

All this prediction is being made by a man who sits on his balcony and watches the Russian Black Sea Flot sitting at quayside. If US decides to pull a 'Copenhagen' on the flot they will find an empty harbor but we, sitting 1000 meters from the quays, might have an interesting moment or two. At the first sign of Russian troops crossing the border VCO will be outta here, up to the Krimea Steppes until the dust settles.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your very imformative posts, which I've been following closely for the past week. I hope you are right that Putin still has a hidden strategy. The battle for the freedom of Novorossiya means more to me than you can imagine, even though I am thousands of miles away. It affects me in very concrete terms. But today I am demoralized and disheartened that Putin apparently has praised Poroshenko's attitude. Putin's great power came from his integrity. How can praise of Poroshenko be a sign of integrity? I would appreciate your deeper insight into this, as I need a bit of encouragement right now. Thanks again for your wonderfully informative sitreps and commentaries. Very sincerely, Someone from Across the Water.

olivegreen said...

Apparently some of the militia members/active helpers from Krasny Liman actually decided to stay behind, go home, and... probably pretend they'd had nothing to do with the whole thing. Turned to be an extremely unwise decision. Now most are either dead or have been taken to the same dungeons in Izyum that the Lifenews journalists were first brought to. Hopefully it will cure the desire to "just go home" in the future.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your very imformative posts, which I've been following closely for the past week. I hope you are right that Putin still has a hidden strategy. The battle for the freedom of Novorossiya means more to me than you can imagine, even though I am thousands of miles away. It affects me in very concrete terms. But today I am demoralized and disheartened that Putin apparently has praised Poroshenko's attitude. Putin's great power came from his integrity. How can praise of Poroshenko be a sign of integrity? I would appreciate your deeper insight into this, as I need a bit of encouragement right now. Thanks again for your wonderfully informative sitreps and commentaries. Very sincerely, Someone from Across the Water.

Crossvader said...

Soarintothesky (20.00),

Russian economy doesn't have to stagnate because 50 Russians cannot travel to Riviera.
It started to stagnate well before Crimea, because the price of oil is stagnant. Russia's near total dependence on the price of oil is its biggest problem.
And joining WTO - Putin's crowning blunder - is what cemented it.
Historically, there never was a single country in the world that became fully developed without shielding its industry from onslaught of cheap imports, sometimes for a very long time. Russia is no exeption. Either it exits WTO and resorts to bilateral trade agreements that benefit it directly - or it will forever remain just a supplier of hydrocarbons with some auxiliary indusries, and not much else.
I believe Putin's calculation was that Russia would attract whole bunch of chemical plants because of the abundance of cheap feedstock, but since that didn't happen and won't happen, WTO membership is worse than useless - it's harmful.
-------------------------------
UK, of course, is NOT growing. The nominal GDP may be rising, but since Brits cook their inflation statistics (just like Americans do), the growth is way overstated. Real GDP deflator is around 5 percent, not 1 percent the official data suggests. Therefore even 5 percent headline growth number is just a stagnation. Everyone in Britain, except for Cameron and Osborne, know that. There is not enough lipstick in the world to make that pig look good.
UK finances are a horror show, and the main reason why Brits are so reluctant to put kibosh on inflow of Russian money. Total stock of debt of 600% of GDP is unprecedented for a major country, and a perfect chokehold on British economy. It's not going anywhere.

Matt Janovic said...

Another issue is that of western lunacy. They love war, they love and need "splendid little wars" but have a way to get stuck in big wars every now and then. It was Nikita who saved the world--and Cuba as well--in 1962. Without NK, with any normal face-saving leader, we would have had WW3.
A safer solution to the problem would be to deliver modern equipment and advisors.

Daniel Rich said...

Oh, ye heretics... Have ye forgotten how bad, how really, really bad Mother Russia, really, really is? Russian propaganda machine 'worse than Soviet Union'. Brought to you by your trustworthy friends over @ the BBC...

OMG, I'm going to be violently ill...

Theodore Svedberg said...

Poroshenko has not yet taken office. The recent escalation in violence by the army are being directed by a government with Svodoba Party and Right Sector elements. These guys are not likely going to be part of Poroshenko's government. He has to tread very cautiously if it is in fact his goal to settle peaceably with the Russians.

Right Sector still has thousands of activists in Kiev and they could cause him some serious problems.

To summarize, the recent escalation in fighting is just the last spasm by the neo-nazi elements before they are removed. Poroshenko will try to bring the war to an end. Who knows if he can pull it off.

Anonymous said...

"Crossvader, Russia is facing a big recession."

Russia is a lot healthier economically than any Western country. It has next to no debt (0.12 of GDP I think). Its Western rivals are drowning in debt. Yes, the standard of living in France or Canada is higher, but Russia has a better trajectory.

As the Far East develops further, the world will need more and more energy. That must mean higher energy prices.

"mount a useless symbolic invasion of Lugansk"

Economic considerations aren't driving these sorts of decisions, but if we do look at the economy, there IS a potential long-term upside. For the past 23 years the oligarchs have been milking the Donbass without investing in it. A more responsible approach (which we can expect from Putin) can return that region to its former industrial glory.

jo6pac said...

Here's what we in Amerika see from the so-called liberal press.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-poroshenko-had-awkward-meeting-155410879.html

Saker I do believe you are on the right track and it's not going to be long before Putin does step in. The bombing of not only citizens and destruction of power grids and water systems is what Amerika has done all around the world. If you can't win the whole prize then leave nothing behind that's usable. The neo-con cycle-0-paths war cry.

Thanks Juan for the update.

Anonymous said...

Poroshenko will have to go to the moderate generals and tell them to put a stop to the offensive. He needs to speak to the people. This video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwAarAn7Q5E shows that the people, even in Lviv, will support him. Going against the empire is dangerous but if he doesn't do it he will be in trouble and the death of his campaign manager has made that clear.

The oligarchs are terrified of Novorosoiya. Their property will be nationalized. They know the offensive won't work and it's time to try something else.


Austrian said...

The Austrian papers report that President Putin will visit Vienna on June 24th and will also meet Poroshenko there on that date. After all the rabid anti-Russian propaganda in which they have been indulging they seem a bit conflicted about this visit now.

Personally I am glad at this sign that my country's timid politicians are not completely captured by the NATO propaganda, and hope it will be a successful visit (unless events intervene, as the Saker indicates.) BTW our Ambassador in Russia, the widow of our former President Klestil, is half Russian herself and has long had good relations with President Putin.

Under the circumstances I would fully understand if Russia intervened to protect the civilians population of Novrossia, I just hope that the conflict can be contained within Ukraine. All those warships, new planes, tanks travelling around the continent were sent for just this eventuality, I fear.

Whatever happens, I hope that the monsters behind the current atrocities will find their rightful punishment, all the way to the top.

Nora said...

Dear God.

We are so incredibly evil. Mr. Nora's a really laid-back kind of guy and I don't think I've ever seen him this mad about anything. I went out to the gardens to give him this SITREP and he just stopped and glared, said he could scream, swore a bit and then spat out, "This is no different from rounding up Jews and Gypsies -- and we're doing it!" How very convenient of us to call Putin Hitler.

But another thing we're doing -- and this time I mean *us* here on this blog: we're waiting for Putin too, right, or the Novorossiyans to really give 'em hell. WE'RE waiting, just like we're accusing THEM of doing, and really of course we all know it's the Empire's aggression and the EU's spinelessness that's MAKING this happen.

So let's US do something: how about writing a letter to your local newspaper with a little background information and, say, 3-5 recent Donbass atrocities of your choice. Our leaders are hopeless, but that's not to say that everyone who reads a newspaper is. If you can just get a couple people to start thinking, and digging around for real (non-MSM) data, they'll talk to others. It may not be enough to stop things but at least you'll have done *something* rather than merely bemoaning the hellishness of what is being done in your name and with your tax dollars.

Anonymous 17:26

"And if a single syllable of what he reports is false or misleading, he is an agent provocateur."

Huh? Why? It's a bit of a truism, that "fog of war"... Could lead to many honest mistakes, don't you think? But for some reason you're already spreading slurs on this particular person. I find that rather curious, to say the least. (There's another truism that comes to mind, perhaps: if it doesn't fit, turn it around...)

N. Solntseff,

"Let us hope that sober minds prevail in the West!"

sigh. Name one.

crazyivanreport said...

¢ Crossvader 06 June, 2014 19:17

> Any Russian President should customarily boycott the event, unless afforded a speech ( where he could highlight Nazi marches in today's Baltics and Ukraine, apparently condoned by the USA).
> He had all the momentum in the world after Crimea. Now squandered.

Your idea is not without sense but I think he wanted to speak with few politicians personally. Perhaps if Saker was right it was Mr. Putin's sort of the last probe on European intentions, thinkings and in possible political developments had the military confrontation started.

Regards

Paul said...

jo6pac said:
"Here's what we in Amerika see from the so-called liberal press."

The author is Armin Rosen. I am familiar with his Yahoo! articles on Russia. He's your typical Trotskyite Jew who's 100% behind American imperialism, as advanced by his tribesmen in the Deep State. That he supports American 'values' being spread around the world is not surprising at all.

Anonymous said...

Hello from Canada.
The 70th anniversary of D-Day is today so I just wanted to send out a sincere "thank you" to anyone here who is from any of the former Soviet republics and the many other countries for the massive contribution your parents and grandparents made when our countries fought together against the Axis forces during WW2. Hopefully the world will never have to endure such a conflict ever again.

Amr said...

In my opinion,Putin hasn't made any miscalculation since the start of this immensely foul and evil regime change by the Khaganate of Nulands ( borrowing terminology from Pepe Escobar). The civilians massacres have been extremely tragic but they were bound to happen with the thugs in the central government.
In response to Crossvader, I disagree that Putin did a mistake by attending the D-day commemorations. To me it appears that this was his last significant opportunity to engage in a definitive dialogue with the various interested parties and to gauge their intentions, both declared and undeclared, especially after he was kept out of the G7 meeting.
As stated by the Svedborg,his cautious appreciation of Poroshenko might give us a glimmer of home that he could turn the tide or at least halt the proceeding, buying some vital time for diplomatic dialogue.
If it didn't work out, then we must brace ourselves for a precise and surgical intervention by the Russians and the scenario could be something like suggested by the Auslander although I would think that it would probably be fast and accurate.
Mr President Sir(Putin),
A great number of people in this world are looking up to you and hoping that you would stop this barrage of insanity, hatred and death created by the Empire and I am hopeful that you wouldn't let us down.

crazyivanreport said...

@ A_Chinese 06 June, 2014 19:46

> If he is lucky and plays right, this could be the end of NATO.

I'm sorry but another "if" from the infinite series of "ifs". You __must__ take into the equation intense activity of the US.

> I think there are probably two major reasons that He doesn't want and shouldn't to intervene.

> 1, Economic burden of owning the Ukraine is too big.

That's the main problem with those who support Mr. Putin "waiting" until Ukraine will be worth __zero__ (completely ruined).

Assuming the dire end of the state there would show someone who would have to take the burden on its shoulders. That is why I reproached the Saker and other pro Putin readers - why to destroy the country first then what? Waiting until Kiev regime would come to Kremlin on knees begging for help? Why not to save the country now? Every thinking human being know that Ukraine needs help and someone will have to do it. EU? NATO? The USA? Stop kidding yourselves.

> 2, Alienating Germany and other European.

How long Messes Lavrov and Putin and Peskov and others have to explain Russian stance on military,world politics and security, world economics etc.? How long yet?

Let it be up to the Germany to decide what they want - either they succumb to US danger of rape them or they will start walking tall and treat both themselves and their EU seriously. Someone once said "enough is enough". Let the Germany shows she is able to learn.

> If military intervention is to inevitable, he should wait until enough European public feel disgust

Can you evaluate the period of time? With EU being medially brainwashed?

> As for the US government, owning the Kiev government is too big economic and political liability, the only way out for them is to get Russia involved.

What do you mean? Have you defined US goals in Ukraine? Another problem with those blindly believing in Putin is underestimating Americans, their soft and hard power and their resolve to achieve their goals - usually if not always stepping on people and peoples (nations).

Regards

Anonymous said...

Less dramatically, a revealing piece in an obscure journal by a Guardian reporter in which he criticises his editors - to the shock of no one remotely familiar with that Round Table paper and its richly cynical history -for acting as stenographers for Washington's Kievan Nazis:

http://www.wwd.com/menswear-news/lifestyle/m-lost-and-found-in-ukraine-7697990?full=true

Paul said...

The West are desperate for Putin to go into Ukraine so why would you play into their hands? History has shown that you never do the very thing they desperately want you to do

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

The D-Day Sideshow 70th Anniversary has seen a great deal of moronic boasting by the Western MSM sewer inhabitants asserting that it represented the 'turning-point in WW2' etc. The denial of reality, that the 'Western Front' was a sideshow, that the war was already won, by the Soviet Union, that the 'Allies', if faced by the even a portion of the huge German forces fighting on the Eastern Front, would not have got out of their boats, let alone off the beach, is, as in all things, psychopathic. Unfortunately the West's narcissistic demand to always be the centre of attention, and utter contempt for the efforts, sacrifices and achievements of non-Westerners only grows more lurid as the West sinks into the sewer of its own moral corruption.
Obama, of course, set the bar high for filthy hypocrisy. He bellowed some lie about the soldiers' sacrifice so that the USA or the West(it was the old 'we')would not need to wage war in the future, or some such malarkey. Not in Western Europe, where class war has sufficed, but in every other corner of the planet the USA has not ceased being at war since their Nazi friends, who they so generously gave refuge to after 1945, were defeated by Soviet power and immense sacrifice.
Tellingly, in France, one of the most thoroughly Zionist controlled states on Earth, the Holy Holocaust was wheeled out for ritual obeisance. Funnily enough, there was no mention of that other Holocaust, occurring at exactly the same time as the Nazi genocides, the Bengal Famine that killed between six and ten million (nobody knows how many, because, after all, these were merely 'Asiatics')a horror that Indian historians firmly attribute to deliberate English policy.

jo6pac said...

Paul 06 June, 2014 21:20

Thanks and that's about all we see here from the so-called liberal press and I'm sure if I did watch tb it wouldn't be any different.

Robert said...

Honour to the Red Army veterans and the Western veterans of D-Day.

123abc said...

I watch every episode of Vladimir Soloviev's show. I have never seen him support Russian military intervention in Ukraine. And if I interpret him correctly, then he defends non-intervention, but he also defends the right for intervention if things go catastrophic.

This is also sums up my hypothesis. The goal is to defend Russian policy of non-intervention and at the same time to prepare Russians for intervention in Ukraine. So that all options are on the table. No doubt the "west" is also watching and analyzing Russian media, so it's also a signal to them that Putin has all options, and more importantly, that whichever option Putin chooses, he will have the full support of Russians.

Anonymous said...

Personally what I would like to see, IF a) Russia will intervene, b) Russia is sincere about it and c) it doesn't entail too big of an additional risk for the Russian armed forces, would be something like this: Russia could make a public video stating their case openly. Specifically, it would have Putin explaining to the people of the world exactly why they are doing this, namely, because of the killing of civilians in eastern Ukraine (insert real footage here). Western media could be targeted (because they have done nothing but lied, and this could be shown explicitly) and also the western politicians (because they have been weak puppets not up to their duty). The situation could be explained exactly, and specific conditions could be given (the anti-terrorist operation must end by date X) or there will be specific consequences (the operation will continue until condition Y: any ukrainian units taking part in the attack are destroyed, or a no-fly zone is imposed, or a humanitarian corridor will be opened). The beauty of this would be that, as far as I can tell, only the truth need be used (contrasting the decades of lies of the u.s. for going to war). Since the Ukrainian or European governments were unable to stop the massacre (despite their words to that effect), this message should be directed more to the people of Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the world. This video would probably go viral very quickly and be seen (via social networks) by a reasonable section of the world's population, and maybe even get through the stupor of the (non-Saker-reading) western people and make them sit up and (finally) think. This would also be fair to the world, since the risk of WW3 starting from this operation would not be negligible.

Forever 28 said...

My guess is that he is trying to do the right thing on surface to win even more moral support around the globe, which has been quite successful so far. It is quite stunning and puzzling to some degree that how many people around the globe are sympathetic with Russia.

Daruma Doll said...

Putin and Poroshenko just met in Normandie.

Had a little talk and seemed to get along quite well, despite their previous disagreaments.

Putin had an unformal talk with Obama too.

There will be no direct Russian intervention in Donbass.

For Russian-speaking readers:

http://www.newsru.com/world/06jun2014/putinporosh.html

As I wrote before, the DPR people gonna get backstabbed and then it'll be business as usual...

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker,

FYI Boris Johnson is the same school as Cameron and Osborne. He plays the buffoon, but is no different to the rest of the Bullingdon Boyz of his era. His tousled hair is the equivalent of Tymoschenko's braids - a PR gimmick.

Daniel Rich said...

@ BOT TAK

Off topice: as discussed in another thread - Donald Sterling's last laugh: Tax-free $2 billion Clippers sale.

Robert said...

A direct Russian military intervention would be deadly dangerous. It would escalate the situation and trigger God knows what moves from the other side. The adults on both sides must know that it is vital at this point to DE-escalate.

Those both in the West and in Russia who are calling for escalation and attacking anyone advocating diplomacy or compromise as weak or traitors should be ignored for the idiots that they are.

If Russia does decide to intervene, and I pray to God they don't one possibility might to be to invoke R2P at the Security Council. The West would no doubt veto but Kosovo set a precedent for overriding the veto and taking military action regardless. The obvious R2P would be a no fly zone over Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Definitely not Russian Army boots on the ground in East Ukraine.

This is why the 1999 war and the recognition of Kosovo in 2007 was so dangerous. It created a disastrous precedent and chickens may be coming home to roost.

What needs to happen is a ceasefire and negotiations on some kind of autonomy for the eastern regions, preferably a federal Ukraine. IF Kiev is prepared to at least discuss the possibility Moscow should be prepared to offer a very generous discount on the gas and write off the old debts (they're never going to be paid anyway)

Nora said...

Daniel Rich.

"I would use the Ukraine as a 'boat fender' [for the time being] until the USS 'We Keep FF-ng U Over' has sailed home." Very good points indeed, but I'm having trouble right now thinking of a time that ship of state has *ever* sailed home without inflicting maximum damage. Am I just drawing a blank? Have we, ever?

Auslander,

"Are they crazy, mentally deranged, or just plain stupid?"

Yes.

Still hoping against hope for a peaceful solution, and praying for you, yours and not-yet-and-hopefully-never-gonna-need-to-be-yours.

New Insight said...

At today's press-conference in Normandy (video 10:21, in Russian) V.V.Putin demanded investigation of the crimes of the Pravy Sektor in Ukraine - including these which he mentioned explicitly:

1) shooting Ukr troops who refused to attack their own people;
2) shooting injured people in a captured hospital;
3) Odessa

The fact that Russia has intelligence on these incidents is no surprise. Significant is that he made such specific, public accusations, and signalled that he is determined to see justice served.

Observer said...

@SoarIntoTheSky

BS psyops fail!

It is the EU that has backed itself in poorly planned Cluster-f-ck in Ukraine. Thats why Nuland had to intervene to try to clean it up, but her incompetence made it worse.

Russia holds all the cards. All Russia has to do is WAIT and the Junta and Willy Wonka PARASHencho will implode.

If actual military intervention is necessary all he has to is unfetter the covert operation and ramp it up an order of magnitude, then lie and deny shamelessly about it's existence (like his counterparts in the Anglo-Saxon world always do). At the same time Putin take credit for Kievan defeats to placate his own electorate (while still denying any involvement to Western Propaganda outlets) - Exactly the way the neocon trotskites in the West do it.

Your economic argument is false. Due to Russia's well developed energy sector and ability to export greater and greater amounts of fuel as well as collateralize these sales, they dont need Western investment as other economies.

Russia can have it's cake and eat it too, and there's nothing that the Eurofacists in Brussels and bunglers at the US State Dept. can do about it.

An overt attack is not necessary for Russia to meet it's humanitarian and security objectives, a covert operation offers them far greater freedom to achieve the same as well allowing them to carry out extra-judicial eliminations of the forces leading, arming and funding the Ukrainian death squads (something a regular army can not do due to international conventions).

Russia/Putin has laid all the groundwork to implement a major covert intervention: wide open supply corridors due to neutralized border posts, Refugee evacuations and accomodation to show the world the barbarity of the EU and their Junta henchmen. Transfers of sophisticated AA, Anti-tank and anti-artillery into the hands of the Donbass liberation forces. In addition, he's instructed Russian Intelligence and legal bodies to gather evidence of war-crimes and atrocities to be used against those players in the West who think that they are impervious. He's put all the pieces in place: All he needs to do is scale it up.

If that leads to escalation by the autocrats in Brussels in the form of direct intervention, well then Russia can take appropriate overt action. But why jump the gun now?

Anonymous said...

I concur with Auslander's sentiment - I can't recall such bellicose rhetoric (regarding a major power like Russia) from Washington, statements that leave little room to back away without it looking like surrender. Obama's speech in Poland where he said that the West would never accept the Russian annexation of Krim seemed to me to be very dangerous - Putin/Russia will NOT back down there, so what is the intent? God help us all.

the pessimist

Anonymous said...

I once read a book about Saddam Hussein by a man who knew him. Saddam really believed in private that if he followed the rules of Americans, he would be spared. He got rid of his weapons of mass destruction and was killed by the US anyway. Clearly appeasing the West is bad strategy.

I fear Putin has fallen into this trap. Surely he had studied in detail the recent history of Iraq.
Why then does he appear to be making the same mistake?

Do you know of any way for a person to get a message to Putin?

Person Concerned about Novorossiya

Anonymous said...

I know things like this don't matter in the big scheme of things, but I can't help but laugh at ""Obama is a tough President"." The contrast between Obama straining at his 8 pound barbells and making a tough guy squinting face for the cameras and Putin's vigorous work out routine of judo and swimming. I know such comments typically invite the accusation that 'you traitor American you're rooting for Putin over your President' or at least of juvenile action movie concepts of 'manliness' but that isn't the case.

The only group of people I'm rooting for here are the citizens of Donbass to find a way to live in peace, one way or another.

As for Russian intervention, it seems to me the globalists have always tried to force Putin's hand with one atrocity after another, while using the large NATO exercise in Lviv region planned for next month to create a deadline in the Kremlin's mind. If understood correctly, NATO first claimed to call off then pressure was apparently brought to bear and now it's on again.

Seems the NATO calculation is Putin would not dare directly introduce ground troops while NATO troops are active and armed in Ukraine, even if they're 300 miles to the west near the Polish border. On that note my thanks again to Juan for all he is doing getting the truth out to the world despite the fog of war and undoubtedly vast pro-Kiev disinfo operations underway including trolling/demoralization propaganda throughout many Russian language threads.

Last but not least, per our Spaniard air traffic controller friend ousted from Kiev, I expect some Polish language websites and alternative newspapers to start reporting on missing pilots thought shot down over SE Ukraine within days.

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

Maybe Kiev has a 'Plan B', in case the American push fails to evoke a Russian shove. If they can't inveigle a Russian invasion, perhaps they hope to simply frighten opponents in the east into fleeing to Russia. Thus they get rid of them and let them become a burden to Russia.

crazyivanreport said...

@ Auslander 06 June, 2014 20:37

> I agree with Saker in that the Russian Army will stop first at the boundaries of Donbas Republic.

I'm not pro Putin (time is on his side) or anti Putin (why he does not intervene).

Every such division implies well defined prime set of goals. Help now or later? Do it by Russia or give the failed state to revive to somebody else, etc.

I assumed only one goal in all my calculations and that is the basic cause we are on opposite sides (of a triangle).

I am deeply convinced that first and utmost one is to physically destroy National Guard and Right Sector units as long as they are mobilized and thus exposed.

My nightmarish visions sow me whole Ukraine taken hostage by ultra nationalist which would be done by diluted into social fabric on all levels.

You are intelligent to explain you step by step what it would mean for the state and the people of Ukraine.

Every level of social lives would be imbibed with nationalism the worst of all, identical to that which created Volyn genocide and others.

In the light of the above ideas such issues like wedges between NATO and USA, EU and RF, USA and EU, fall of $, unipolar vice multi polar world are important, but not as much as making things tidy in the cross point of Europe, Asia, Middle East and Africa.

First one (here Russia, alas, she allowed herself to the corner, not my fault) has to get rid of the explosive geographical point and its fuzes - ultra nationalist, fascists and the cut-throat activist from Ukraine.

Russia must take whole Ukraine. Annihilate thugs not worth to live, make necessary political changes, make elections and then withdraw.

Any partition or other murky solutions not based on my radical and bloody assumption will not resolve the Ukrainian issue and other global political issues.

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

Nora, in the propaganda sewer that is the Australian MSM, this week we have had a slag (my apologies to iron-making waste)called Anja Niestadt or some such, from the ever odious Human Rights Watch, asserting that the 'atrocities' in Novorossya have been committed mostly by the secessionists, and that evidence of Banderista death-squad operations have been 'faked' and 'photo-shopped. And an (expletive deleted) called Anna Reid of the hard Right shit-rag 'Economist' asserting, with lip-curling arrogance and contempt, that Russia is the aggressor in the entire Ukraine fracas, and that the fascists in the Maidan were a tiny minority.
It put me in mind, yet again, of how arrogant lying has become not just acceptable, not just ubiquitous but mandatory in public life in the West, in just a few decades. I well remember when lying was considered a bad thing, but now our 'leaders' lie openly and always, then lie about their lying. They are joined by the Rightwing MSM, where the lying is allied to vicious, ever growing, fear and hate-mongering, with the Murdoch cancer leading the way.
I was reminded, too, of one of the springs of this behaviour just yesterday. Our current Federal regime, the most evil in our history by a long distance, has just switched long held bipartisan policy concerning the Occupied Territories in Palestine, to drop the word 'occupied' in line with Judeofascist demands, but out of step with virtually every country on Earth. The most evil regime the most pro-Israel- now that makes sense. The ABC decided, not to present a voice pointing out our isolation, but a prominent local Zionazi liar, who gave a tour de farce of arrogant, and these creatures do contemptuous arrogance like no others, lying, with no countervailing voice to point out his serial lies, one after the other. I was reminded while listening, that utterly contemptuous and brazen lying really began with the Judeofascists lying about their actions, allied of course with total MSM complicity, and the immediate mobilisation of the 'antisemite' slur whenever they are confronted over their assault on the truth.

Krakz said...

Interesting reading, but why should putin not just wait?
he can support the donetz force with men and better equipment - not just the old udssr stuff. AA-Missiles, short range Ground to Ground Missiles and Anti-Tank-Weapons thereare al lot of options.
Only thing he has to make sure ist, the donezk troops won-t break. The following bloodshet will deligtimate the kiew goverment - at one point the world will be satisfied, someone put this war to an end - that s russia enters the scene.
"Best" thing for Putin to happen would be a massacer of NG - moscow can prove

Mulga Mumblebrain said...

Daniel Rich, the sheer arrogant effrontery of the BBC, that lies about everything in service to the Empire, accusing someone else of 'propaganda'is beyond parody. And with that 'God is an Englishman' arrogance that really turns the stomach.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the Putin Poroshenko meeting - RT had a piece a few days ago suggesting that the military was not under the control of the president. Didn't the Rada strip the president of much of his authority back in February? Seems Putin said pretty clearly "good ideas son, now go back home and sell it". A doubtful proposition perhaps.

the pessimist

Anonymous said...

"The second fastest growing big economy right now is the UK, not a developing country and its manufacturing led(China's still ahead" Sorry I call BS on this claim. Where's the real evidence? What affordable energy would draw manufacturing back to Blighty with fracking barely begun? Looks like more BoE smoke and mirrors to me, like the so-called 'recovery' here in the U.S. which is mostly non-existent outside a few corridors like the Bay Area and Bos-Wash (with job markets in Philaldelphia and New Jersey certainly not getting better).

I actually believed what SoartoSky was saying, right until he threw that MSM whopper in. A sincere expat perhaps but duped by the propaganda.

American Kulak

Anonymous said...

Interesting that the assault on ethnic Russians has maximized on historical D-Day.

Seems a satanic inversion to me.

crazyivanreport said...

@ Daruma Doll 06 June, 2014 21:51

> Putin and Poroshenko just met in Normandie.

> There will be no direct Russian intervention in Donbass.

> As I wrote before, the DPR people gonna get backstabbed and then it'll be business as usual...

The US demanded, the EU asked and Mr. Putin fulfilled all the Western preconditions for further... bloodshed and irking sanctions.

Does he wanted to make the Western politicians be more smiling, exposing all their teeth only to knock them out in greater numbers when he will strike in Ukraine, witht CIA and other military intelligence agencies still heard nothing in the air attesting to intense activity of Russian military?

With Crimea Russia fooled the CIA and other intel agencies like never before.

Paul said...

The differences between Putin and Obama, in pictures:
http://www.tomatobubble.com/putin_obama.html

Warning: pinkos may find it 'racist, sexist and homophobic'.

Petri Krohn said...

I translated the transcript of the Politics with Peter Tolstoi show and posted it here:
Ukraine: how to stop the bloodshed?

Participants:
Sergey Shargunov, writer
Alexander Kofman, head of the Secretariat of the coordinating Council of the public movement "South-East"
Andrey Isaev, Chairman of the State Duma committee on labor, social policy and veterans' affairs (fraction "uniform Russia")
Vladimir Zubanov, former adviser to presidents of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych
Vladimir Skachko, political scientist, chief editor of the newspaper "Kievsky Telegraph" (Ukraine)
Vladislav Shurygin, military expert, chief editor of the newspaper "Journalistic truth"
Sergei Markov, Chairman of the Inter-Commission Task Force for International Cooperation of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation
Dmitry Orlov, Director General of Agency of political and economical communications
Alexander Dugin, scientist, philosopher, leader of the International Eurasian movement
Karen Shakhnazarov, drector, people's artist of Russia
Vladimir Gromov, Commissioner of staff of the Army of the South-East of the Lugansk People's Republic
Egor Kvasnyuk, coordinator of the liberation movement (Odessa, Ukraine)
Maxim Petrukhin, Deputy of the Supreme Council of Donetsk People's Republic
Vladimir Alekseev, Deputy of the Kharkiv Regional Council, expert of OSCE and Council of Europe

I tried out Yandex Translate for the first time. Found it to be astonishingly good. Most of the translation is exactly like Google Translate. The above list is creted using a combinations of both; neither could get all names and titles right.

***

Someone already linked to this statement by Alexandr Dugin: "Putin will end up like Gaddafi!"

From his Facebook page:
Путин, введи войска! #putinvvedivoiska
(Putin, send in the army!)

I spent a day with Alexandr Dugin some two weeks ago. His lecture in Helsinki was a huge success.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@EVERYBODY: please read the translation of the transcript of the show Politics with Peter Tolstoi made by Petri Krohn and posted here:

https://www.facebook.com/notes/truth-about-situation-in-ukraine/ukraine-how-to-stop-the-bloodshed/1508127859410561

There are some very well informed and sharp guests on this show, so a big THANK YOU to Petri Krohn for the translation!

The Saker

Daniel Rich said...

@ Nora,

Q: Am I just drawing a blank? Have we, ever?

R: No, you're not. I wish I Had the stomach to lie to you and tell you otherwise. We've maimed and killed so many people, all the time claiming to liberate one thing or another, that it make me puke over and over again when I see all those mo-fus [pardon my language] out there lying through their teeth.

The Battle of the Bulge tells you what would have happened if Germany's forces wouldn't have been wasted in the East. Like you, I was told/taught that 'we' won the war, that 'we' were the decisive factor in a just outcome of the 'war effort.'

Good won over evil... until you start reading article 19 and 21 of the Nuremberg Trial Proceedings Vol. 1
Charter of the International Military Tribunal


19) The Tribunal shall not be bound by technical rules of evidence.

21) The Tribunal shall not require proof of facts of common knowledge but shall take judicial notice thereof.

If 'you' keep this in mind, it explains why Putin 'annexed' Crimea, but no the 'Ukraine.'

I am convinced Russia will not attack anything outside its territory. The costs more than outweigh any benefits.

Paul said...

To Petri Krohn:

What type of people go listen to Dugin's lectures?

I believe they are mostly European nationalists, but of a different breed of what we are used to see.

Anonymous said...

The Russian economy depend on the both the oil price (and gas price) and the market access. After 9.11 USA have decided to become independent of energy import. This was made possible by a huge increase in the oil price and the extraction of shale oil. The oil price have now been high for so long time that there have been made to much investment in new production capacity. The oil price will crash unless some producers is hindered access to the market. By hindering Russian access to the European energy market USA kills to birds with one stone. They keep the price of oil up (and thus help the US shale oil industry) and they open up Europe for US LNG. As a extra bonus they inflict damage to Russia and Putin.

Cortes said...

No doubt the explosion at the generating station just outside Pristina was just "one of those things" ?
Only a few days until the inexorable advance of General Winter...

Anonymous said...

Very interesting and disturbing read, the Tolstoi transcript. Now RT is reporting that the US will provide military advisers to Ukraine (asap) along with the 'non-lethal' aid package and other assistance already approved. The warning lights are blinking red I'm afraid...

the pessimist

Anonymous said...

Obama has been out played by Putin on both Syria and Crimea, he is very wounded, most likely will not back down.

I also think Russia can not cut EU gas is a bull. A notice should have server long ago: if you want energy security, then do not mess with my national security.

Anonymous said...

Putin went to Normandy to be humiliated, to be ignored, to be demeaned... to try one last time to stop the killing in Ukraine through peaceful means.

He is a head of state. He is a proud man. He knew what would happen in Normandy. But he thought it was worth it.

The world is about to find out what "Russian intelligence" really means.

The CIA crazies that run the US government (God does that sound nuts) are about to get what they want. I hope you like what you get, Victoria.

Anonymous said...

RT has posted more bad news: http://rt.com/news/164352-slavyansk-blockade-shelling-civilians/

We are not far from intervention IMO

the pessimist

Anonymous said...

You want to know what's really disgusting.

The CIA goons are short the stock market.

Because when Russia does what it has to do, the stock market is going to crash.

And maybe that was part of the whole point: keep the MSM completely silent on the atrocities, go short, and wait for Putin to act.

I hope Russia is short too.

Anonymous said...

crossover said "He had all the momentum in the world after Crimea. Now squandered."
exactly. that is what was said by Paul Craig Roberts

Lucky said...

Putin is now looking pathetic! Like a little boy who did something bad and now running around the table where grownups sit soliciting their attention and forgiveness.

I am not saying Putin should sent the military in Ukraine, nor am I saying he should openly support Russian in Ukraine if that support will endanger Russia's global interests. What I am saying is why not have more self-respect for himself? Why trip to Normandy? He was not wanted there, he was not welcomed there, period!

He should have some basic dignity and respect for those that were savagely murdered by Ukrainian Nazis from the West supported by those same countries whose presidents gathered in Normandy to celebrate "the victory" against Nazis!

Putin was not even sitting at the same table where the G7 countries' presidents were sitting. They sat him at "a little boy table", on the side.

In addition, he met with the man who ordered that East of Ukrainian must be cleared from "terrorist" (read Russians). Putin even gave him props!

Looks like Putin has lost his orientation. Great thing that he salvaged his relationship with his Western "partners/friends" how Putin calls US, GB, France and Germany. Not once have I heard the presidents of those Western countries called Russian representatives partners, or friends. Also, hoe many of those Western countries' presidents showed up at the Victory parade in Red Square held on May 25th? NONE!!! Then why going to Normandy?

Is it too much to ask the president of Russia to have respect towards Russians regardless of where they live (or currently being killed)? Is it too much to ask Putin to treat Western world the same way that it treats Russia and Putin himself?

Or maybe Putin thinks that his Western "partners/friends" will leave him alone if he now gives them what they want since they had allowed him to take what Putin wanted? How thoughtful from Putin! He is very much in denial if he thinks they will leave him and Russia alone. And by the time Putin realizes that he will be sitting in Hague chatting with the judges from "partner/friend" countries. Smart one learns from someone else's mistakes, stupid learns from his own mistakes, Putin does not learn at all.

I personally was disgusted with the picture

Observer said...

You're wrong to assume an absolute: "there will be no direct intervention in Donbass" based purely on a single platitude made in France. Direct Russian intervention in Ukraine depends entirely on the situation and context going forward.

Putin's covert support will continue (he's winning). He will not stab the people of Donbass in the back based on a single press release. It's his main leverage against a group who built their empire mainly on breaking treaties and murdering their trusting victims when they let their guard down.

If Putin was so cowed/cajoled by the West, then he'd also reverse course on de-dollarizing his Energy contracts; that's the REAL threat that gets the West into psychotic state of aggression. The fact that he hasn't given any concession on this far more serious issue, tells you he isnt intimidated into giving away Ukraine.

If doesn't directly intervene but steps up covert support how is he stabbing anyone in the back?

Anonymous said...

Soarintothesky saID ON 06 June, 2014 20:00

"The second fastest growing big economy right now is the UK, not a developing country"?
a country which produces nothign but deals with money laundering and steals other nations wealth including russia's is a country which should be delcared a rogue state dealt with.
No country can be allowed to live off stolean wealth on recurring basis as parasite english nation does-time to sort out the pest.

Daniel Rich said...

Thank you Petri Krohn for your translation. Much appreciated.

Are there any Crimean forum members out here who can shed [aka the truth] some light on the following:

Allegations Against Crimea's New Leader.

Thanks in advance.

Robert said...

The CIA is Wall Street and vice versa. Doubtless the City of London is MI5 and 6 as well.

Just after the Maidan snipers the British liberal paper on Sundays The Observer published an article saying that state terrorists and oligarchs behind state terrorism should have their assets freezed so that all their theiving will have been for nothing.

In principle I support this idea one hundred percent. The problem is of course that the powers that be would only seize Londongrad assets if it served their geopolitical dogfights. They would only ever do it against the other side of the business while oligarchs aligned to the West would get off scot free.

Nonetheless the freezing of Ukrainian and/or Russian oligarch assets in Londongrad would be a much better weapon than pursuing your goal by using bullets and baseball bats.

Nora said...

Daniel Rich,

"Good won over evil... until you start reading article 19 and 21"

Holy. Poop.

Dugin's comment re: Putin ending up like Saddam Hussein is just ringing in my ears, but my jaw's still on the floor. Daniel, we are so far beyond ordinary Evil. And the only thing I can think of is to write letters to the editor! And we imported all the Nazis we wanted, and kept the rest on the payroll in West Germany. Anonymous 22:30 called today's obscenities on ethnic Russians, seeing as it's the anniversary of D-Day, a satanic inversion. After all the religious discussion a few posts back, I guess it wouldn't be Satan, but you know we may be -- are -- the most Evil Empire the world has ever known. And I'm sure you used to believe in this country just like I did.

Anonymous 23:14

VERY interesting hypothesis. It makes a lot of sense -- and of course we couldn't care less if Russian Ukrainians die or Europeans freeze in the dark. But by gosh, our oilogarchs and MIC will make a lot of money. What else matters? (The word was "what", not "who", bc we already know *people* don't count, they only exist as implements or impediments unless they're part of the 1% -- and the .01% are the ones who truly matter.)

Observer said...

@Anonymous 21:49

An excellent suggestion, if and when it becomes necessary.

Perhaps he should add that his legal team will consider Media owners and their management complicit in war-crimes and conspiracy to enable mass-murder if their organizations are shown to censor evidence of war crimes or sanitize the actions of war-criminals. Wouldn't that be a great fantasy?

Remember Putin's the same guy that assured the West that no Russian troops would intervene in Crimea. Yet, we all know, how quickly Putin's Polite Men in Green secured Crimea: While the arrogants idiots in State Dept were slapping each other on their backs congratulating themselves on grabbing Ukrainian, Putin launched a brilliant silent bloodless Blitzkrieg to secure Crimea militarily to allow the people of the region the political breathing space to vote for their reunification.

Anonymous said...

The Ukrainians are committing ghastly atrocities on the Easterners - and it is not propaganda or staged scenes - the photos show Ukrainian soldiers (with non-hidden faces) committed these horrors with glee. Like this cannibalism photo of a Ukrainian soldier posing like he is eating/sampling the severed and burnt arm of a victim:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpcghDnIUAA_dzg.jpg

Personally if this is how their army operates they deserve no sympathy, nor do any of the people who support them.

steve said...

Then again, perhaps the correct reason for the increased hawkishness on the part of the Russian media is simply the obvious one:

The Russian media likes to get web hits, larger viewership, sell newspapers and magazines, and War sells.

Macon Richardson said...

I read so many comments here and elsewhere in which the commenter speaks of some atrocity as being "sad". "It's sad that. . . ."

No! Atrocities are not sad. Atrocities are outrageous! Atrocities shouldn't make you feel sad. Atrocities should make you feel outrage!

Let's look at those who "feel sad". I'm sure the sad ones have roofs over their heads. I'm sure they have enough food to eat. Jobs! Protection! Safety! I'm equally sure that within seconds of blathering onto some comment section, their sadness disappears. Perhaps if they were to increase their anti-depressant medication they would no longer be troubled at all by passing sadnesses.

Atrocities are outrages! Unless you're a Sadean fan of atrocities, your emotion should be outrage.

Let me tell you about outrage. Outrage doesn't dissipate after a few minutes. Outrage hangs around. Not only does it hang around, it grows and grows. You may be unable to do anything to quell the outrage but that's okay, too. Outrage will change YOU!

Today there are three hundred million Americans sitting around being sad that their country has been sacked from within and that they're jobless, homeles, hopeless. Boo-hoo! How many enraged Americans do you see? Okay, you do see a few, but only their bullet-ridden bodies.

This is a rant. I apologize for not organizing my thoughts in a more orderly fashion but I'm outraged. Stop with the "feeling sad" stuff. Next time you feel sad at some atrocity ask yourself why you're not outraged at it. Or increase you anti-depressant dosage and stop writing mewling comments.

Macon Richardson
Penang Island, Malaysia

hardcore said...

@Auslander
WTF is VCO?
(darn acronymania!)

Observer said...

@Daniel Rich

Bridget Kendall of the BBC is a decrepit fat over-the-hill Russian speaking MI6 operative that specializes in denigrating Russia and especially Putin, i wouldn't take anything that comes out of that slut's mouth seriously. She is totally without credibility and the link you provided is pure propaganda filled with British sour-grapes and poorly masked feelings of Britain's accelerating inadequacy.

Anonymous said...

@ Auslander ... Are they crazy, mentally deranged, or just plain stupud?

Seem to be mentally deranged to such a degree that they themselves acknowledge it.

Since the year of 2007 the intelligence (or - madness ?)Agency - DHS - have been renovating the dilapidated, castle-like structure —opened in 1855 as the Government Hospital for the Insane...

http://publicintelligence.net/the-department-of-homeland-securitys-new-hq-is-an-abandoned-insane-asylum/

Now they - together with the 22 agencies making up the DHS - are
working from there :(

Best Regards

shed

Crossvader said...



Soarintothesky,

" Russia is facing a big recession. Putin has more substantial issues to deal with than romantic nationalists in another country. He is the President of the Russian Federation not the Fuhrer of the Great Russian folk. Stopping Ukraine taking the Russian economy even further down is the biggest concern".

From Bloomberg, just now:

"Hit by Ukraine-related sanctions that have triggered nearly $70 billion in capital outflows so far this year, the Russian economy is expected to grow only by around 0.5 percent in 2014, compared to an initial government forecast of 2.5 percent".
----------------------------------
So, not only isn't Russia facing "a big recession", it has a very good chance to avoid even a small one.
Judging by the rocketing Russian stock market, capital flight is largely, if not fully, reversed already.

вот так said...

«Укр кушает руку кацапа» — изуверский юмор в блогах бандеровцев ("Ukr eats hand of Katsap" - savage humor blogs Bandera)

http://rusvesna.su/tmp/1100043691 (trans) http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/rusvesna.su/tmp/1100043691

"Shocking photo with the caption "Ukr eats hand of Katsap" today, June 6, flew around the Internet, appeared on many Ukrainian nationalist forums and social networking pages supporters unitary Ukraine.

Apparently removed the photo personally not involved in the fighting, however, is directly in places of events.

Users of social networks are wondering, "I Wonder how the mother of such degenerates will be able to look into the eyes of his sons? Even the fascists did not dealt with such atrocities as these Bandera... to kill his own people, his brothers and also to enjoy it".

Precisely because of such misanthropic sentiments South-East of Ukraine is not able to coexist with the West."

Arius said...

If it is likely that a Russian military intervention in Ukraine is soon to occur shouldn't we now start thinking what actions the US will take not only against Russia but against those of us in the west that understand the Russian point of view?

For instance, the US might try to stop currency transfers in and out of Russia by their control of the Swift system. Or block internet traffic to and from Russia. They might order that blogs supporting Russia be denied service from US based service providers. I have already started to research non-Western based service providers.

The US is trying to create another East/West divide, this time with the West on the wrong side. It sickens me that we are likely to go through this again but the lunatics in the West are marching us into it.

Anonymous said...

People here are talking about prosecuting war crimes. War crimes are only prosecuted against opponents of the empire, that's the rule.

Daniel Rich said...

@ Penang Island

How's the Chinese shrine? Is she still standing?

Q: Atrocities should make you feel outrage!

R: I must have missed the vote that appointed you as the judge as to what others should feel [or not].

You direct your personal outrage at those who can't do a damned thing about this situation [harassing one's congressperson aside], to people you have no clue about.

I understand your outrage and anger, but these two feelings are not one's best friend when 'cooler heads' have to prevail in order to prevent a major mishap to be instantaneously triggered.

The Empire is dying and she needs another war to prop up that crumpled little greenback.

Theodore Svedberg said...

It seems obvious to me. Russia is not going to intervene in Eastern Ukraine at the moment. They are waiting to see if Poroshenko can bring the Ukrainian army and guards under his authority stop the current offensive. If Poroshenko is 1) unable or 2) supports the offensive anyway, then we can speculate on whether or not Russian will invade.

If it comes to that it seems to me that Russian will not stop at the Donbas. I suspect they will, at the least, take all of Ukraine north and east of the Dnieper River as well as Odessa, Kherson the other oblast next to them. The reason for this is simple. Seizing the Donbas will provoke a huge reaction in the US and EU. Seizing the other areas will not add to that reaction by the West.

President Nixon describes it best. Do not settle for half of the enchilada if taking half of it provokes a political reaction no different then taking the whole thing.

Shelia Cassidy said...

Saker, I hope you and I are both wrong,l but the feeling in some quarters in the US is that Obama wants a world war because this system is crashing. If so, The US will launch a first nuclear strike, some of the hawks having convinced the elites that they can defend against the reply. Of course, the massive losses of US, American and others are fully accepted by these insane people. In fact, it is the very thought that the US can launch a first strike and get away with it that has them pushing this war in the Ukraine. There is a movement to impeach Obama, but I don't think it will happen, at least not soon enough. The whole idea of the encirclements is to stop the reply, not against a Russian first strike. They know that Russia does not strike first. To all I say follow Nora's suggestion and write the papers, your spineless politicians, and anyone else you can. Before it is too late. Thanks Saker for your analysis. Even if WWIII is averted, they will continue going after Russia until they destroy it, or destroy themselves. I am hoping for the last result so Russia and the world can live in peace and prosperity at last! God Bless!

Josh said...

I've seen reports - for example here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10202593147204610 - that Pantsir-S1 were being sent to the Donbass self defense forces. Don't know that this has been confirmed.

I've also read numerous reports that significant sections of the Donbass border with Russia-proper have now been liberated. This seems to be well confirmed, though I haven't seen much discussion of it here.

It would seem that short of an all out military intervention, there's the option of having more sophisticated weapons sent in, likely along with some fighters - be they regular Russian special forces or allied Chechen militias, Abkhazians, veteran volunteers, etc.

Or if the Ukrainian Airforce is deemed too much for the Donbass forces to handle - even with more advanced SAMs - then there could be a Russian Airforce intervention but little in the way of Russian troops in the ground. This might be loosely modeled after NATO's 2011 Libya intervention.

In any event - it seems to me that the best approach for Russia would be to do what is needed to stop the worst of the military assaults on civilian areas while allowing self defense forces to gain the upper hand but to avoid setting up any sort of zone of occupation.

Theodore Svedberg said...

Macon Richardson
Penang Island, Malaysia

It goes without saying that innocent citizens die when nations collide. I do not feel outrage, just deep disappointment that my nation, the US, is willing to sacrifice so many innocent lives in their pursuit "democracy" for other nations.

That is what the US does. It has been doing so for the last 200 years at least. Outrage is like anger, an emotion that leads one to irrational ends. We cannot afford anger or outrage.

I am friends with one who was a heavy weight prize fighter (hell he even survived three rounds with George Forman) who always cautioned his students: do not bring anger into the ring, it will destroy you. Leave anger out and just calculate to the best of you skills.

Larchmonter445 said...

Crimea was genius operation. However, remember that there were Naval ships, Intel officers, 26,000 troops at bases, overwhelming population in favor, awesome history of fighting the Nazis. It was Russia coming home.

Donbass has far little of this to compare.

Putin has to lay the Intel foundation, devise corridors for refugees, wounded, and logistics for full support of an enlarged resistance Army. Think of what they need to fight against air attack, drones, tanks, artillery, US advisers, US and Brit SOF and the fanatical neoNazis and Russian haters.

Preparation is key. He needs to be certain of Donbass winning.

And what he really wants is Odessa. He has to prevent Kiev allowing NATO into Odessa.

This is strategy, tactics and logistics all of which must come together without dragging in the RF military. The people have to win this resistance war. It is a rebellion. Most fail.

Right now, he has phase one in place. Destabilizing Kiev.

But he has to get water to Crimea, integrate their economy, arm the resistance, save the refugees, feed and supply the resistance, and hold off the Hegemon and the bloodlust neoNazis.

He has saved the economy, protected his capitalist base, expanded deals with China, connected Eurasia, held many important military exercises, and now is studying the enemy in action, close at hand.

Give him some room. Pray for wisdom. Vlad has to defeat the devil.

Most of all, he has to keep Russia developing, growing, secure, and stable.

He knows Russia is in the crosshairs.
His moves with Iran are propitious. They may send Hezbollah to help. Also, I'm betting China will help bankroll some aid. They are very good at smuggling. All that oil and gas Crimea has interests them. So too the food from the East and South.

Consider the game is GO, not just Chess.
181 black, 180 white stones on 361 grid intersections on the game board.

It's a complex strategic game.

Crimea was like odd-even morra. They showed a fist and Putin gave them the finger. He had odds.

Crimea was very simple. Donbass is not.

Anonymous said...

Steve,
This war is not your average american war of choice, fight some made up enemy in far away land.

The war in happening at RF's door step, her people is dying. The war is also brought there from far away land. How big chance do you think your frond door get shot up, your children got hurt, and you family will be safe if you stayed indoors?

WizOz said...

@ 'turning-point in WW2'

Indeed if people would look also in other directions, they would realize that the turning point in WW2 was somewhere else.

On the 23 August 1944 Romania, who was an ally of Germany turned the arms against it. A key sector of the Eastern front crumbled and the whole front was moved in just few weeks several thousands Km to the West, adding also the whole Romanian Army to the Antifascist Coalition. The Germans had to retreat precipitously from the Balkans, Budapest was occupied by the end of the year.
Like in WW1 the German troops that could have been transferred to the Western front where they would certainly have pushed back the Allies in the sea, had to be kept on the Eastern front.
If the Allies made advances it was also due to the illusions entertained by the German High Command that the Allies would eventually clash with the Soviets.

Anonymous said...

Sangue eslavo não ferveu.
10 de junho se fecharão as torneiras do gaz. Já aconteceu antes e, os reservatórios subterrâneos na Ucrânia irão embora.
Alemanha continuará parceira confiável.
As bolças de valores cairão vertiginosamente, o preço do ouro irá subir bem como o petróleo, em oito meses começará guerra civil nos EUA, será uma carnificina (infelizmente).
Saker, quando a coisa começar, você terá não menos que 72 horas para catar sua família e cair fora daí!
:-/

sync-99 said...

Ukraine has fallen to pieces long ago. Analogy with Russia before Putin is striking. Super Wealthy, mostly through criminality, oligarchies controls in place, keeping the country in an economic straitjacket. I think the country needs to get rid of these wealthy parasites before they can talk about the country's reconstruction. What shall grant relief if the cause of today's tragedy is economic anarchy and super corruption? These oligarchies is the fifth column in the country with extremely dubious loyalties. Where is a Ukrainian Putin?

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@Anonymous:Saker, quando a coisa começar, você terá não menos que 72 horas para catar sua família e cair fora daí!

Bueno, no se si voy a tener tiempo para irme, pero en todo case u como siempre mi única protección es Dios. Ademas, yo tengo mas amigos en los EEUU que en cualquier otro lugar del planeta. Por eso no estoy convencido que irme de aquí seria la mejor solución. La Florida es muy distincta del resto de los EEUU y no estoy seguro que vamos involucrarnos si empieza una guerra civil en el Norte.
En todo caso, gracias por tu consejo.
Salu2,
El Sacre

Anonymous said...

To Anon @ 04:02

Outro brasileiro por aqui, escreve em inglês, cara!

Essa "brasileira" http://instagram.com/lolamelnickoficial também está acompanhando a situação na Ucrânia. Ela nasceu em Odessa, e pertence a etnia russa. Você deve conhecer ela da TV.

Lucky mcgriff said...

I for one totally agree with your being outraged. I am outraged. I help support the the biggest terrorists in the world by submitting to the law of my country. In the last few years I've come to know the truth. It at time seems beyond my understanding! You one day think your fighting for freedom around the world, when actually your terrorizing it. Hurting innocent everywhere. There is a process for grieving, all that you ever believed in to be the lie of your life. I pray for all being killed, displaced, deceived, it the name of liberty and freedom worldwide!

As for Putin, I pray he prays! I have a feeling he does. That's a wonderful place to start no matter where the lunatics TRY to lead him. God bless the whole situation! Peace to all!

Anonymous said...

Some of you outraged as to Russians calling eu/us "our western partners". Just add sexual to that phrase and it's all falls right in to place. Keep in mind that Russia is somewhat passive partner in this relationship. Lol.

Auslander said...

"hardcore said...
@Auslander
WTF is VCO?"

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is Victor Charlie Oscar? You know I am 100% PC in my scribblings. Stands for 'Vertically Challenged One', aka my 150 cm 45 kilo ornery...I mean my sweet and charming bride of 10 years. We are a team helping as we can with this hideous tragedy unfolding up north as we speak.

"Daniel Rich said...
Are there any Crimean forum members out here who can shed [aka the truth] some light on the following:
Allegations Against Crimea's New Leader. NPR USA"

NPR? Really? A font of truth and wisdom on par with that NGO masquerading as a news outlet called 'kiev post' in Kiev?

I have neither the time nor the will to again explain in detail again what happened back in February this year. It is a long and involved progression that began with publicly stated threats against us in Krim and Sevastopol. However, I will debunk one glaring lie that ALL west media repeats. Again, one last time.

Russian soldiers DID NOT TAKE KRIM RADA COMPLEX. Know that, understand that and live with that fact. Here's the short version of the security cam vid of the takeover, done because Right Sector had failed to take and burn Rada Complex the day before and had promised to 'return at dawn and burn it to the ground'.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6oTOSTOq1E

Look at the weapons. Quite modern and state of the art in general. Uniforms and equipment? A hodge podge. Handling of weapons? Good. Professional? Absolutely not. Last, look at their feet and tell me what you see. 'Nough said. I personally know some of those brave men. I was not aware of the plan to secure Krim Rada.

When all this is over and their ID's are publicly known I will tell you who they are. I will hear you laughing all the way to Sevastopol, either that or your shocked 'Holy s//t. They did that?'

I do not personally know Mr. Aksyonov but I have seen these allegations from The West since two days after the securing of Krim Rada. Are they true? I do not personally know. However, like Mr. A. Chalyi here in Sevastopol he was the right man in the right place at the right time to do what was needed for Krim and he did so at great personal risk to both himself and his family.

Corruption from Kiev down here was rampant to an extreme. I have been in many countries and seen much corruption but NOTHING I have ever seen rivals Kiev and the oligarchs installed in Rada there. NOTHING. Is Russia corrupt? Yup, but Russia in no way rivals Kiev. Here's a little case in point that says I, too, am 'corrupt'.

We built a house 9 years ago. If you want service to a house the official cost is $3.00 and a visit to two bureaus. Reality? Yes, you could get electric service at that price, but you would not get it before your grandchildren have long white hair down to their knees. $50 placed in two grubby paws alleviated the need to go to 20 different bureaus for 6 months and we had new electric service in two days. 3 weeks ago we decided we needed stronger electric service for the digs, more AC etc. Cost? One phone call and more than triple the old official cost. 350 rubles, or $10. Done in three days from the phone call.

'Nough said? NPR has always been considered a joke, and a bad one at that, especially after BBC had their brain aneurysm way back when and NPR stopped carrying their wonderful and varied series of comedies and dramas. Pity, really, but life goes on and life changes.

Anonymous said...

Saker:

Why is the gas still flowing?

mata h ari said...

1. President Putin does not need Red Flags like Washington to send Russia's troops into Ukraine. Like President Eisenhower who could not enter the war against Germany unless he could get the US citizens to support him, he deliberately with held information about the pending Japanese attack at Pearl Harbour thus causing huge public outcry and outrage when the Japanese DID attack the US.

President Putin could not unilaterally send Russian troops into Ukraine without sufficient public outrage in Russia and Western Europe, or indeed in the rest of the world. This is the 21st century. Public opinion is important. He needed solid public support, not just Europe and Russia but also planetwise.

Amerika creates red flags incidents - like 9/11, Pearl Harbour .. - to get public support behind it for a war. President Putin and Russia need no less. Wars MUST be justified and supported by the people.

If the spineless West European "leaders" dare not resist Obama and his administrators and no longer carry their people with them, then President Putin has the justification and alibi to carry out a defensive war to remove the Kiev junta and killings in eastern and southern Ukraine. No matter how much the Western mainstream media lies and slander President Putin and Russia, Americans, Europeans, and citizens of the rest of the world are unlikely to believe nor support Obama's smear campaign.

2. It is not easy to make a decision for war; More so for a good man like President Putin. He has, indeed to be circumspect. At critical times like this, he needs ALL the understanding, support and loyalty from everyone. Have faith in him. He has put his country above his personal ego by attending the D-Day "celebration". That speaks more about him as a man of peace than mere rhetorics, threats, bluster, falsehoods, insincere words of peace, from a "Nobel Peace Prize winner" like Mr Obama. You cannot blame President Putin for intervention in Ukraine if EU leaders do not change in their support of Obama in the matter of the unnecessary genocide in Ukraine.

3. From the beginning, it was difficult for President Putin to find himself and Russia eventually in a nuclear war with the psycho Obama-fronted-Washington junta, which the world does NOT want. Thus knowing where intervention lead, he knows he cannot intervene without strong cards in hand.

Now that China and Iran is solidly behind him in an alliance, if Washington starts a direct war - conventional or otherwise - China and Iran will attack Amerika's interests in the East and Middle East. There is probably a 49-51% chance Beijing will order the Diaoyus and the rest of the Spratlys and Paracels to be taken back with an attack on American military bases surrounding China at the same time and a limited war with Japan, while Teheran will simultaneously order attacks on American bases in their region of Asia.

it is not that President Putin and his Administration disagreed with Paul Roberts or Finnian Cunningham but he has to decide on the how and when. That part takes time or one will be considered "reckless". If anything, President Putin is not a reckless type as can be seen from his circumspective demeanour.

cont. in 2/2

mata h ari said...

2/2 ..

4. If and and when a nuclear crisis faces Obama, Ms Nuland will be kicked out of the Obama Administration as will other members of the White House team who supported her for failing to see the chain reactions which will lead to an irreversible (unless Obama has spine) global war where billions will die and the earth contaminated and which Obama, Putin, Xi, or Rohani doesn't want as legacy as leaders of their respective countries.

5. Let petty Obama wallow in his false glory at the D-Day Celebration. Saker is correct that an intervention is inevitable and there's nothing the West can do about it. Freedom must prevail; Tyranny overthrown, and hypocrisy stamped upon. There's enough bloodshed in Ukraine. More will be spilled worldwide if Cameron, Hollande, and Merkel does not stop this madness emanating from the Black House. They MUST have the backbone to tell off Obama in his face to accept "defeat" gracefully and sportingly. Or face a united Europe if he declares a war of assasination and sanctions against Europe. Maybe even a physical war worldwide if he shows no humility and HONESTY. If they can't, maybe it be hoped, mercifully, their Parlianments will stand up against them AND vote against continuing this madness of supine buckling to "Edward Longshanks" Obama by Cameron, Hollande and Merkel.

6. Then again, Obama's life will be in jeopardy. They - FBI, CIA, Pentagon - killed Kennedy. Perhaps global is inevitable. The script has been written. But good men must rise up against bad men. Psychotic and psychopathic Washington should NOT prevail.

Anonymous said...

@larchmonter445 : "Also, I'm betting China will help bankroll some aid. They are very good at smuggling. All that oil and gas Crimea has interests them. So too the food from the East and South."

Typical CIA shill or trolls' methods of invading blogspace to "manage" readers/public opinion : Write very reasonably and rationally and then throw in a misinformation against your enemy(ies) unsuspectingly.

Are you a prejudiced individual or stealthy CIA/Pentagon sockpuppet here in virtual space?

Anonymous said...

I do not think Russia will go into Ukraine under any circumstances. The same way it has not gone into Syria. The Russian media is supporting a sympathetic narrative for the people of Eastern Ukraine who are and will continue to flood across the Russian border as refugees. Without the role of the media, Russians could and might still be resentful of the thousands being cared for by Russia.

Russia in the eyes of the world will be seen as the saviour and humanitarian, Kiev, the US and the EU will be totally discredited by the devastation that is and will be caused in Eastern Ukraine. By the time Kiev is finished, neither the EU nor the US will want to pick up the tab for reconstruction.

I suppose I should not be surprised that a no fly zone has not already been declared by the UN. This should have been done last week. But then again it would be a waste of time as the US would veto it.

I also think that the people of Western Ukraine will wake up, if they have not already done so and realise that they have walked into an IMF neo-liberal trap. You might just find that Western Ukraine will do a 180 degree turn in disgust with their own leadership in Kiev. There was after all, only a 35-45% voter turnout on the Chocolate King.

Anonymous said...

hey guys, have been lurking for some time here....had 2 pos this news item....dunno whether it has been posted before. actually pretty explosive!!!

http://www.navytimes.com/article/20140605/NEWS08/306050088/U-S-sending-advisers-military-gear-Ukraine

вот так said...

Речь инаугуранта Порошенко: никакой федерализации, государственный язык только украинский (Speech of inaugurate Poroshenko: no federalization, the state language only Ukrainian)

http://rusvesna.su/news/1402130035 (trans) http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/rusvesna.su/news/1402130035

""Ukraine is a unitary state, any federalization will not be", - said today Poroshenko in his inaugural speech.
Verkhovna Rada Poroshenko wants, taking advantage of its success in the elections, to urgently re-elect. According to him, the current composition of the Parliament does not meet the sentiments in the society.

"As soon as possible to sign the Association agreement with the EU as soon as the EU decides, immediately sign it," said Poroshenko.

In Donbas, he intends to hold early elections. Apparently, after the successful completion of punitive sweeps.

He also said that the only state language will remain Ukrainian. And minority languages will be provided some abstract of the right to development.

Crimea, in the opinion of inaugurant, still part of Ukraine.

"And I said this to the leadership of Russia: Crimea ours, no one can be on the issue of compromise, " said Poroshenko."

He and Saakashvilli were butt bros in college. Both are made from the same говно. Hopefully both will dangle on the same scaffold. Soon.

buntalanlucu said...

saker i would caution you about this poster called crazyivan, because he also posted in the blog of the person you banned here (RB's niqnaq) and he seems to be speaking both side of his mouth and badmouthing saker's opinion behind him.

i tried to follow all blog related to ukraine crisis but recently the 2 blogs i followed started to spout putin hate and advocating russian invasion without regards to consequences. These blogs are crazyivanreport and RB's blog. They also trying to belittle's saker's opinion in their post without any explanation.

im beginning to wonder if these 2 are the same person living out their dual personality confusion.

Anonymous said...

Dear Saker

The problem for Vladimir Putin is that this is a

poisoned chalice. If he does establish humanitarian

corridors by force, Washington will use it as a

precedent in Syria. They've already tabled such a

motion in the UN under Chapter 7, which allows for

force to be used. So if VP goes ahead as you've

described, Washington will counter in Syria in the same

fashion, and you can be sure that it won't be

humanitarian aid that's taken into Syria. The

Proponents for armed action here need to realise that

VP is playing on a much larger chessboard than we can

see.

I'm sure that VP can see that Washington has started a

war with Russia, it just hasn't declared it and (as

usual) is happy to fight it on other countries

territories using their assets. He must start finding

ways to widen the action into Washington's back yard,

to start making this something that hurts it. At the

moment it's a zero cost situation for Washington, while

VP and Russia have thier hands tied behind their backs.

Supporting anti-US factions in Mexico and Canada (they

must still exist) would be a start.

вот так said...

Плохая примета для Порошенко: солдат уронил ружье (Bad omen for Poroshenko: soldier dropped the gun)

http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/759700.html (trans)http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/759700.html

With a bit of creative editing:

параша

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3CI6SCdkgU

Anonymous said...

Like you I don't have updated access to what each Russian is thinking.

Your analysis of the mix in Russian media has some validity.

However I would suggest you since don't factor in the following the xtrapolations you make are probably misguided.

The media tends to be based in Moscow and St. Petersburg with feeders to the provinces.

Russia is more than Moscow and St. Petersburg.

The editors and personnel in the media usually come from the chattering classes with good blat/propiskas, and the choice, concern and presentation in the media tend to reflect this.

The chattering classes are to some extent insulated from the consequences of their chattering.

In most societies including Russia there is a reaction to the metropolitain nature of the media, including not paying much attention to it.

In the 1990s part of the strategy was to leave Moscow and St. Petersburg to the squabblers whilst maintaining a presence, and build the base in "Russia" proper.

You can roughly place this concerted effort in the period 1992-99.

The main constituency and support of the present government lies outside Moscow and St.Petersburg.

So I suggest you are putting too much emphasis on what the chattering classes say, think etc.

Hopefully the opponents will do the same for similar reasons of hubris.



Anonymous said...

It may be a residue of exceptionalism, and it has merit if the opponent still holds the notion, but positing that Poroshenko strings are pulled by Washington, which may refelect the belief in Washington, denies and/or demphasises the agency of others - including Poroshenko.

Anonymous said...

A. Chinese @1946 6th June 2014.

Let me suggest you are not ambitious enough.

Its an interactive process which has lead and is leading to the transformation of various entities including but not necessarily restricted to:

The European Union.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

irrespective of the perceived short-term outcome.

Elites never give up their positions voluntarily, and under great duress they tend to transform their perceived positions the better to remain the same.

Although not homogenous or temporaily distinct in all circumstances, the process of the opponent tends to go:

Perception of danger - implement the old policies but faster and harder.

Perception of lack of success - scrabbling around for transformation opportunities.

If process 1 and 2 fails, then comes the Oh fuck moment.

None of this takes place in a vacuum and it is always subject to interaction.

Anonymous said...

i.e. Catherine - part 1

1. I should like to know which one of thee three gentlemen mentioned by Saker is more comparable to Alex Jones, and what part of national audience, i. e. influence, he and they enjoy.

2. Crossvader (June 6 - 19:17) is VERY WRONG. V. Putin’s visit to France was a smashing diplomatic success inasmuch as his interview to TF1 and Europe1 was censored, cut and doctored for propaganda’s sake and the public was immediately made aware of it.

The man who published, on his site, both the real interview complete (41 minutes) and the doctored one (24 minutes) has seen his audience rise to 100.000 visitors in a few hours. And all blogs/sites (except the mainstream) are relaying it. See original here :
http://www.les-crises.fr/interview-poutine-scandale-des-coupes/
Above all : read comments everywhere and realize how Putin’s visit, as far as the French public is concerned, was a master’s stroke, notwithstanding the one picture that tends to show the contrary at establishment’s level (all around the Queen of England except him released by the Daily Mail)

As far as the French larger public is concerned, the tide has turned and the Anglozionists’ useful TV puppets have made the mistake of their life.

The reason for the interview was entirely franco-french : the interviewer, Mr. Elkabach is a longtime supporter of Nicolas Sarkozy, and it is obvious that Sarkozy is trying to use Hollande’s historical unpopularity rate to plan his own return where nobody wants him. Thus his visit to Sotchi a few days before the Caen celebration, and thus the interview of V.P. by one of his yesmen.

See Ph. Grasset’s analysis, which, in my opinion, is much kinder towards Elkabach than he deserves. To the French audience (TV and the Net) both interviewers completely disgraced themselves and Putin’s popularity in France is consequently soaring up.

Anonymous said...

i.e. Catherine - Part 2

Another thing that Crossvader overlooks is the French-speaking net having been completely swept these past days by an analysis due to Ms Annie Lacroix-Riz (a jewish communist historian, and author of a number of renowned books on WWII, the Reich, the Pope and their French allies). This paper – « The 6th of June landing – from Myth to Reality » - is to be found everywhere, except in the mainstream of course. It tells those who never knew that Europe was freed from nazism by the USSR, not by US troops. See it here, on Meyssan’s Réseau Voltaire :
http://www.voltairenet.org/article184071.html

To sum things up, the French people, as a whole, equally abhors Hollande and Sarkozy. The trouble is that there is no one to take over, except Marine Le Pen, which is not exactly a gift. The big unknown factor is when and how will Army and Police make their much dreamed of putsch. Some call openly for it. See here for example :
http://la-dissidence.org/2014/05/27/de-nos-amis-chez-les-paras/
http://la-dissidence.org/2014/06/04/lidee-du-putsch/
http://la-dissidence.org/2014/06/05/plaidoyer-pour-larmee-francaise-enrayer-le-declin/
Of course, a military coup, whatever its intentions, is always a Pandora’s box. And where – and who – would the French Chavez be ?

These past years, Vladimir Putin has been more or less in the same situation as Stalin was when he was forced to sign a pact with Hitler, after having been rebuked by the West, especially by the French, and his main problem was to save time.

Now, he (V.P.) is also in the exact situation as was Robespierre, when all sides wanted the war for very different reasons and he was the only one to fight it off, both for realistic assessment of the game and on principle. As you may know, the war was declared, catastrophic as it was bound to be. He had to do it and, against all odds, he won it. Even though his victory was his undoing.

All leaders who happen to have principles are forever torn between two antagonistic kinds of demands : principles against efficiency and vice versa. Like Plato’s horses, you know, who always want to go in opposite directions and that one has to keep in the same track. That, obviously, is the difficult exercise V.P. is engaged in. Robespierre is the only leader I ever heard of who managed to remain at equal distance of both to the very last minute of his life : when he was begged to sign an « appeal to the people to take arms », began to write his name and stopped, refusing to become the leader of a faction. On this very moment, he fell on the side of his principles and was killed the day after. What at least he left behinf him was a country saved from foreign invasion and whole. I am convinced that V.P.’s main – if not sole – goal is to keep Russia whole and sound. And that he is also trying very hard to save it from a nuclear victory that would be a disaster in any case.

Last : is it as obvious to you as it is to me that the Anglo-Zionist deathsquads are following the same roadmap in Venezuela as in the Ukraine, not to mention Syria ? Mr. Maduro has no potent neighbour to intervene or help. Could not the Ukraine and Venezuela be considered - and declared – one war on two fronts ? If Venezuelan and Russian armies cannot openly cooperate, could not their public opinions (and the rest of the world’s) be made more acutely aware of this ? After all, wars can (and must) be fought on the PR and PO levels, as well as on the ground.

Regards to all.

VINEYARDSAKER: said...

@buntalanlucu:saker i would caution you about this poster called crazyivan, because he also posted in the blog of the person you banned here (RB's niqnaq) and he seems to be speaking both side of his mouth and badmouthing saker's opinion behind him.

Yes, I figured that one too. Both of these guys are full of manure, but I don't want to pay much attention to their ravings. If they want to post here and trash me elsewhere, why would I care? They are both clearly seeking attention - so let them. They are still just bugs on this blog's windshield :-)

Cheers and kind regards,

The Saker

Ilja Schmelzer said...

I think there is some hope that Putin manages do to this without intervention.

The way how the right sector behaves in Krany Liman and other atrocities may be part of provocation of Russia to start intervention, but it will have also another consequence: Increasing numbers of local people will participate in the self-defense. Last but not least, if their city will be taken by the junta, they will be punished anyway - or at least have to be afraid of this - so it would be better, for simple reasons of self-defense, to be armed.

With increasing manpower of the Novorussian army, support from speznas units will be much easier to hide. Appropriate defense weapons are already available.

Thus, the result may be that Novorossia simply wins the war even without intervention.

Andrew said...

sync-99:

Where is a Ukrainian Putin?

Probably over in Donbass. There are enough native candidates. Oleg Tsarev, Pavel Gubarev, Valery Bolotov

Andrew said...

Theodore Svedberg:

That is what the US does. It has been doing so for the last 200 years at least.

200 years? I think not. Please don't slander the first 125 years of America that my ancestors helped shape and rule.

The US became an imperial power in 1898 with the Spanish American War, following up the victory of the NY Bankers/Industrialists around JP Morgan in the 1896 elections. This election represented the capture of the Republcian Party by the bankers. This was followed up in 1912 with the election of Wilson, which represented the capture of the Democrats by the bankers/industrialists and was followed up with the creation of the modern American system - Federal Reserve (control the money), Income Tax/Inheritence Tax (control the rich - the tax code and trust laws allow the favored to escape taxation and punish the politically unconnencted), and direct election of senators (dis-enfranchise the State Governments). And of course World War I and the emergence of America as the Global Military Power and then WWII and the emergence of the Surveillance Security State with the CIA and NSA.

The last semblance of an even slightly independent national politician here was President Eisenhower and you can tell that by his warning about the Military-Industrial Complex. Some of you here keep prattling on about JFK - please! The son of a gangster and smuggler later made the Ambassador to the Court of St. James? A Harvard graduate and Senator? An outsider to power? Really, if you are looking for political outsiders in the US today or the past 70 years, look for people calling for the dismantling of NATO, the withdrawal of US troops from abroad, dismantling the NSA/CIA and halving or three-quartering the defense budget. You know, the John Birch Society/New Alliance Party fringes of the left and right.

Andrew said...

crossvader:

So, not only isn't Russia facing "a big recession", it has a very good chance to avoid even a small one.
Judging by the rocketing Russian stock market, capital flight is largely, if not fully, reversed already.


The whole episode was a chance to rout out the panic-prone types from the Market and buy low. It was a charade and a great opportunity for those who can read the tea leaves.

Let me say this about Ukraine. Everyone (including Saker) keeps going on and on about how worthless Ukraine econmy and industry is, how much money its going to cost to upgrade to modern standards, blah, blah, blah.

Yes, it is. But you know what? Ukraine is for sale super cheap right now. As any businessman can tell you, the time to buy is when valuable assets are cheap. And what are the assets of Ukraine? Educated population, good schools, advanced infrastructure (roads, rail, power grid, utilities, cities), Black Earth farmland, huge coal, iron ore, and manganese deposits, shale gas, uranium, phosphate, sulfur, navigible rivers, fresh water, natural ports. Think about farmland. Ukraine barely uses tractors and fertilizers compared to the US, Canada, or Western Europe. Imagine her production potential if modern agriculutral techniques began to be applied - production could easily triple. Agriculture = population = governance = power. Russia and Ukraine and Kazakhstan together have the agricultural potential to support well over 1 billion people, while just 200 million live there today.

Ukraine has as many people as Canada and Australia combined, and the same types of natural assets as them. It could be just as wealthy, which would mean a growth in productive value by over an order of magnitude - from $175B to $3.5T. Do you know of many places where you can easily invest a couple hundred billion and see an eventually 20 fold return annually? Why do you think there is a fight?

Anonymous said...

Andrew said..re Theodore Svedberg:

That is what the US does. It has been doing so for the last 200 years at least.

200 years? I think not. Please don't slander the first 125 years of America that my ancestors helped shape and rule.

Perhaps you forgot Mr. Monroe with his doctrine of protection?

Granted if so, to be accurate the text should read 191 years or 47 years after the declaration of independence - remember the joke that starts we the people.

Andrew said...

Theodore Svedberg:

If it comes to that it seems to me that Russian will not stop at the Donbas. I suspect they will, at the least, take all of Ukraine north and east of the Dnieper River as well as Odessa, Kherson the other oblast next to them. The reason for this is simple. Seizing the Donbas will provoke a huge reaction in the US and EU. Seizing the other areas will not add to that reaction by the West.

So true. The EU/US reaction from doing anything - establishing a no-fly zone or invading and taking even ten square miles of Luhansk will be no less than seizing the whole of Ukraine. So you might as well take the whole.

That is also why Russia would take Kiev, Vinnitsya, and Zhitomir, making the shortest possible defensible border containing a majority sympathetic population.

If Russia invades, you can actually count on Russian tanks rolling all the way to Bug - there is no reason to stop half way and leave the present powers in office.

The fate of Galacia will depend on whether Poland/NATO wants to refight 1919-1921 and 1939. If Poland decides to fight, Russia will be happy to establish the shortest possible de facto border from the top end of Moldavia directly north to Belarus and Pripat marshes and let Poland have Ultima Banderastan again. I have no doubt Slovakia and Hungary have contingency plans of their own to seize Transcarpathia in such a situation. Hungary especially has been making enough noise about this, and the Rusyns are very close in language and sentiments to the Slovensky of eastern Slovakia. This would make for a simple solution sovable by treaty to end hostilities. In this sense, Russia fostering, allowing and provoking a Polish response is ideal, because it immediately solves the Galacia problem.

On the other hand, if no one decides to fight Russia, I think Russia is smart enough to realize that Ukraine is politically untenable as it stands and cannot be left as is. Already in the 2012 parliamentary elections won by the Party of Regions, Regions + Communists got 8 million votes compared to 10 million for Fatherland + UDAR + Svoboda + Radical. Regions won the seats because the opposition was split, not from majority popular support. Now take Crimea out of the mix, and the situation is even more untenable for any Novorossiya party as having a chance in Ukraine. Lavrov has already commented that there is a fundemental flaw in Ukraine seen by multiple seizures of power and the penchant for changing the constitution with every change in governance. Lavrov and Putin have both said Kiev is too important to Russian civilization to be left apart. On the other hand, there is no such sentiment in Russia for being one country with Lviv.

(end Part 1)

Andrew said...

(Begin Part 2)

mmented yesterday on this poll:
http://rt.com/news/164076-ukraine-poll-east-west/
showing the split in the country along the natural de facto border. If Russia invades the whole, she will quickly find a way to cast off Galacia and Volyn and Rivne into a separate governance. This new statelet (call it Ruthenia) will be encouraged to become part of the EU and NATO as is their desire and as quickly as possible, and Russia will exit occupation as quickly as possible after bringing the worst of the Nazi leaders to justice. Ukraine cannot possibly be stable with them as part of the country. In the remaining Ukraine, Russia will create a federalized structure with larger governates, basically something combining 2 or 3 or 4 Oblasts into one Governate. I suggest Donbass, Kharkov, Dnipr, Odessa, Ukraine, Podolia, and Kiev. Since Novorossiya area will have the majority of the population, the structure should be biased to ensure a majority of federal areas are Novorossian, which will give time to re-orient Kiev and surroundings to a more sensible political view. Kiev should be stripped of being the capital (which will help force emigation of Galacians back to Lviv, and a new capital constructed southwards along the Dnipr, say near Kremenchuk, to be symbolic of the new beginning and called St. Vladimir. Alternatively, Dnipropetrovsk could be repurposed as the capital and thusly renamed. It should be at the crossroads of the path Odessa-Kharkov and Donetsk-Kiev, Think of it as the opposite of and Ukrainian equivalent of St. Petersburg - symbolizing a turn eastward towards Moscow instead of a turn westwards towards Rome and London. This project also creates an opportunity to kickstart Ukrainian economic growth. The new state will joint the Eurasian Union. The new state will be rewarded with Transdniester and Gauguzia and see a permanent settlment of all Moldavian issues with Romania to maximize Romanians in Romania and Russians, Ukrainians, Bulgarians, and Gaguz in Ukraine, but Crimea will remain Russian. The state will have Russian and Ukrainian as official languages and will need a new and non-partisan name - Malorossia - Little Russia. Ukraine can remain the name of the new federal region around Sumy-Poltava-Chernihiv. Of necessity, the Russian military will be stationined indefinitely in Budjak/Odessa and in Zhitomyr until such time as the Ukrainian military can be reformulated, rebuilt, and reentrusted with its mission of being the borderland guard of Eurasia.

So yes, if you are going to invade even 1000 meters, you might as well invade 1000 kilometers instead, as the western reaction will be the same, but the potential for fixing the problem is quite different. A Ukraine stripped of Crimea and Donbass is a permanently hostile Maxima Banderastan under the sway of Lviv. This is precisely what the west wants. A Ukraine stripped of Lviv is Malorossia, a friend and neighbor and ally of Great Russia.

The Novorossiya project is too small and a half measure. A Malorossiya project is needed.

Bill the Butcher said...

My personal view is that Putin will not invade. Not under any circumstances. Instead, he will provide weapons (like those MANPADs which have been knocking Nazi planes out of the sky like clay pigeons these last few days) and possibly ex-special forces to the separatists. Putin, emphatically, does not want the rust belt of East Ukraine. He, however, definitely wants to compel Obama's Nazis to sue for peace. That means, no NATO, no slavery to EU at the expense of Russia, and autonomy for the Russian majority areas. Ultimately, the Nazis will have to comply.

I believe, and I have stated as much on my comic strip, that the Nazi militias are being set up by the West for destruction by Putin. That the Ukrainian army does not want to fight is no secret. The so-called National Defence Forces or whatever they're called are basically the Pravii Sektor and allied nazi militias. Remember that their second-in-command was murdered by the "government" in Kiev before the "crisis" in Donetsk and Kiev started? If the ethnic Russians there hadn't demanded autonomy/independence, the Nazis would have become a real problem for the EU and its oligarchs. Nor can the EUgarchs control the ethnic Russian areas and they know it. So they are trying hard to provoke a Russian invasion of the East. The Russians take the rust belt and its assorted problems, they wipe out the Nazis, the oligarchs get their dirty work done for them for free, and best of all, Putin gets the blame. Just one problem - Putin's far too smart for that game.

Anonymous said...

Dear Auslander @06:09

Thanks for the background on the Crimean Rada operation. The video in the link you provided has gone. Is this the same same operation?

Anonymous said...

First of all, Putin jeopardized lives of eastern Ukrainians right after he accepted Crimea. He knew that illegitimate nazi oriented criminals took over the power in Kiev, and being familiar with history of those two nations, he should’ve known that frustration with Crimean annexation will be taken out on Russian people in east and south. Even, if they never resisted they would still end up slaughtered, only the process would be a lot faster.
If he didn’t have a plan to finish what he started and return all Russian historic territories that were taken after Cold War capitulation (that’s what collapse of USSR really was) than he should’ve not done anything and Russians would simply have to wait for some better times. They would survive, they would be oppressed but they would be alive.
I know you all are probably tired of us Serbs and our “we know better than anybody attitude”, but we fought against those people and we know how they think (they’re dumb as bag of rocks, it’s no rocket science), and we love Russian people just as we love our own. Since they destroyed our army and installed these cowards in our government, we can’t help in any other way but to warn them of what will happened.
As far as Putin is concerned he should clean this mess ASAP and send the troops in. Russians are very proud and brave, they will not sit and watch this massacre of their people peacefully. There were times when they were starving and they weren’t backing up, so to frighten them with some ridiculous sanctions is an absurd and RT should stop insulting Russian nation with sanction reports, since nobody cares and no one is afraid.
Best to all of you and tnx for updates …

Anonymous said...

First of all, Putin jeopardized lives of eastern Ukrainians right after he accepted Crimea. He knew that illegitimate nazi oriented criminals took over the power in Kiev, and being familiar with history of those two nations, he should’ve known that frustration with Crimean annexation will be taken out on Russian people in east and south. Even, if they never resisted they would still end up slaughtered, only the process would be a lot faster.
If he didn’t have a plan to finish what he started and return all Russian historic territories that were taken after Cold War capitulation (that’s what collapse of USSR really was) than he should’ve not done anything and Russians would simply have to wait for some better times. They would survive, they would be oppressed but they would be alive.
I know you all are probably tired of us Serbs and our “we know better than anybody attitude”, but we fought against those people and we know how they think (they’re dumb as bag of rocks, it’s no rocket science), and we love Russian people just as we love our own. Since they destroyed our army and installed these cowards in our government, we can’t help in any other way but to warn them of what will happened.
As far as Putin is concerned he should clean this mess ASAP and send the troops in. Russians are very proud and brave, they will not sit and watch this massacre of their people peacefully. There were times when they were starving and they weren’t backing up, so to frighten them with some ridiculous sanctions is an absurd and RT should stop insulting Russian nation with sanction reports, since nobody cares and no one is afraid.
Best to all of you and tnx for updates …

Nora said...

Anonymous 11:31, i.e. Catherine

Your words are very profound, and fascinating, about Putin and France, and also Venezuela. But is there truly no one else who could step in besides Le Pen? One would think somewhere, someone of some kind of stature would have the brains and some decent kind of experience without being beholden to the usual suspects.

Andrew,

My ancestors would beg to differ with yours! Also, read a little more about the Monroe Doctrine and the various adventures we had in other parts of the Americas. Bankers (including Philadelphia Quakers getting quite wealthy from, yup, Ukrainian wheat) were very active fairly early on in the Republic -- and let's not forget the Gustave Belmont (agent of the Rothschilds), various other German Jewish houses, the Mexican War, Lincoln's campaign contributions/verrry cozy relationships with various railroads... And then there were cotton factors. But yes, the coalescence and coalitions and co-opting of both political parties happened a bit later. But also the OSS guys were mostly Yalies from big banking (earlier, opium trade) families. I.e., we've always been pretty oligarchical and pretty darned corrupt. And also notice that Eisenhower waited until the last possible moment to make that speech. He knew, he did warn us, but even Ike didn't have the stones to challenge them while still in office.

Your words on the investment potential of Ukraine though -- WOW!

C Stegiel said...

Lest we forget:

White House tape recordings, April 25, 1972:

President Nixon: How many did we kill in Laos?

National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger: In the Laotian thing, we killed about ten, fifteen [thousand] …

Nixon: See, the attack in the North [Vietnam] that we have in mind … power plants, whatever’s left – POL [petroleum], the docks … And, I still think we ought to take the dikes out now. Will that drown people?

Kissinger: About two hundred thousand people.

Nixon: No, no, no … I’d rather use the nuclear bomb. Have you got that, Henry?

Kissinger: That, I think, would just be too much.

Nixon: The nuclear bomb, does that bother you? … I just want you to think big, Henry, for Christsakes.

May 2, 1972:

Nixon: America is not defeated. We must not lose in Vietnam. … The surgical operation theory is all right, but I want that place bombed to smithereens. If we draw the sword, we’re gonna bomb those bastards all over the place. Let it fly, let it fly.

Anonymous said...

i.e. Catherine

to Nora,

Alas, no, there is none.
When M. Putin started his political career, he came from a Russian institution, which gave him his beginning of legitimacy before it was confirmed by elections.

There is no-one of the kind in the French political personnel. All those who belong to political parties since, maybe, the fall of Mr. Mendes-France, are totally owned by the (let us say) US colonizer. As to the communists, they have done what all the European communists have done, except the Greeks : nothing.

When General De Gaulle made his comeback in 1958, he had to do it by way of a militatry coup and face elections only after the deed was done.

Great hopes were bestowed on Mr. Mitterrand, when he was elected in 1981, but it soon turned out that hopes had been illusions. He too had the US leash around the neck and did not try to break it loose or die.

People with ideas and courage are not lacking, but they do not belong to any legitimate institution or strong-enough party, and the general public will never hear about them to the point of paying attention, because they will not be allowed to pass the media barrier.

The only way to « make it » seems to be like De Gaulle did. But nobody knows who are the high rank military, even by name, and what their political options are. Moreover, for the past 5 decades, people have been so brainwashed (educated as well as uneducated) that there is a total absence of political culture, even basic. It all has to re-start from scratch.

And unfortunately, France has no George Galloway. Not that I know.

The one person who does a good job on certain topics is Alain Soral. He manages to mobilize and in some way to educate a good part of the young people (particularly those young French nationals of arab or african descent), he does it especially by opposing the Anglo-Zionists. However, when it comes to principles in politics as a whole, he is not too distant from Marine Le Pen and her father. All that one can do is walk a bit shoulder to shoulder with him, wait and see and hope for the best. Idem for Mr. Chauprade, who just joined Ms. Le Pen
There is also Thierry Meyssan (http://www.voltairenet.org/) who is the soundest political French mind that I know, but he had to flee in exile when money was put on his life by the Sarkozy presidency. For several years, he has been residing in Russia, Lebanon, Libya and now Syria, and he is doing a great job to help those who are really opposing the empire in these countries, but there has never been even a handful of persons at home to support him and demand respect for his elementary right to live. Remember that Georges Ibrahim Abdallah is the oldest political prisoner in Europe (30 years !) and that’s in France.
So, you see… Maybe it’s just the decline of the West.

The one thing that forbids despair is precisely the popular response to Mr. Putin’s words last Thursday. As if the French, even the recent ones, had retained some sort of instinct from the glorious past. Let’s knock on wood.

Andrew said...

Nora:

Regarding the Monroe Doctrine, you need to distinguish between the original declaration, which was one of solidarity between the US and the newly liberated countries of Central and South America the rejected any attempt to recolonize the western hemisphere, the people having won freedom from Europe by feats of arms, and the later perversions of it by the Wall Street crowd that ended in the Roosevelt Corrollary and effectively turned Latin America into a de facto US protectorate.

"The occasion has been judged proper for asserting, as a principle in which the rights and interests of the United States are involved, that the American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintain, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonization by any European powers.

"We owe it, therefore, to candor and to the amicable relations existing between the United States and those powers to declare that we should consider any attempt on their part to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety. With the existing colonies or dependencies of any European power we have not interfered and shall not interfere. But with the Governments who have declared their independence and maintained it, and whose independence we have, on great consideration and on just principles, acknowledged, we could not view any interposition for the purpose of oppressing them, or controlling in any other manner their destiny, by any European power in any other light than as the manifestation of an unfriendly disposition toward the United States."

In other words, the US, seeing a reflection and imitation of its own armed struggle for self-determination by the people of the rest of the western hemisphere, determined that any attempt at resubjugating any part of this hemisphere to colonial exploitation was a declaration of war on the whole hemisphere.

Keep in mind that this was written by John Quincy Adams, the most anti-imperialist politician of that era, and that the US had just come out of a second war for its very existence with Britain. The necessity of this statement is more than evident by the British sponsored rebellion by the Confederates in the US and the Austro-French imperial adventure in Mexico.

As to bankers and mercantile traders, such people are the epitome of civilization - the making of men to dwell in cities - and have been with us as long as people have lived somewhere besides a farm or nomadic existence. There is nothing wrong with the professions, and many honorable people have worked in them. Like any profession, they have their temptations to evil, where men can cheat and exploit others. We don't condemn entire classes of men because some among them are reprobates. The modern structural evil in banking and trade comes from the systemic form they have achived through politics and law to enrich themselves at the expense of others, and most especially the confusion and inversion of banking and trade, which are services added on to the real economy, with the real production economy of goods and ideas. Instead the real economy has been subverted to function for the enrichment of bankers and traders, as if the reason we produce things is for others to collect interest on the work.

Anonymous said...

The move over Crimea was carried out without loss of life whatsoever!
Russia was always going to protect its Black sea Base at whatever cost!
East Ukraine is being left to defend themselves from this Rouge Administaration Referendums were held and Kiev do not accept the results time the world demand that they stop Bombing innocent Civilians no matter what nationalities they are this has become a Disgrace and the white house Spokesperson Psaki when Questioned about Phosphorous Bombs being Dropped on Civilians states she has not heard of this and tried to say Russia has carried this out? Insanity is at work just look where USA have taken Iraq?